Belief Accuracy
belief accuracy
How People Form Beliefs
In this talk I will present our recent behavioural and neuroscience research on how the brain motivates itself to form particular beliefs and why it does so. I will propose that the utility of a belief is derived from the potential outcomes associated with holding it. Outcomes can be internal (e.g., positive/negative feelings) or external (e.g., material gain/loss), and only some are dependent on belief accuracy. We show that belief change occurs when the potential outcomes of holding it alters, for example when moving from a safe environment to a threatening environment. Our findings yield predictions about how belief formation alters as a function of mental health. We test these predictions using a linguistic analysis of participants’ web searches ‘in the wild’ to quantify the affective properties of information they consume and relate those to reported psychiatric symptoms. Finally, I will present a study in which we used our framework to alter the incentive structure of social media platforms to reduce the spread of misinformation and improve belief accuracy.
The Problem of Testimony
The talk will detail work drawing on behavioural results, formal analysis, and computational modelling with agent-based simulations to unpack the scale of the challenge humans face when trying to work out and factor in the reliability of their sources. In particular, it is shown how and why this task admits of no easy solution in the context of wider communication networks, and how this will affect the accuracy of our beliefs. The implications of this for the shift in the size and topology of our communication networks through the uncontrolled rise of social media are discussed.