When making decision under risk, people often exhibit behaviours that classical economic theories cannot explain. Newer models that attempt to account for these ‘irrational’ behaviours often lack neuroscience bases and require the introduction of subjective and problem-specific constructs. Here, we present a decision-making model inspired by the prediction error signals and introspective neuronal replay reported in the brain. In the model, decisions are chosen based on ‘anticipated surprise’, defined by a nonlinear average of the differences between individual outcomes and a reference point. The reference point is determined by the expected value of the possible outcomes, which can dynamically change during the mental simulation of decision-making problems involving sequential stages. Our model elucidates the contribution of each stage to the appeal of available options in a decision-making problem. This allows us to explain several economic paradoxes and gambling behaviours. Our work could help bridge the gap between decision-making theories in economics and neurosciences.

Mental simulation—the capacity to imagine what will or what could be—is a salient feature of human cognition, playing a key role in a wide range of cognitive abilities. In artificial intelligence, the last few years have seen the development of methods which are analogous to mental models and mental simulation. In this talk, I will discuss recent methods in deep learning for constructing such models from data and learning to use them via reinforcement learning, and compare such approaches to human mental simulation. While a number of challenges remain in matching the capacity of human mental simulation, I will highlight some recent progress on developing more compositional and efficient model-based algorithms through the use of graph neural networks and tree search.

Deep learning is a prime example of how brain-inspired computing can benefit development of artificial intelligence. But what else can we learn from the brain for bringing AI and robotics to the next level? Energy efficiency and data efficiency are the major features of the brain and human cognition that today’s deep learning has yet to deliver. The brain can be seen as a multi-agent system of heterogeneous learners using different representations and algorithms. The flexible use of reactive, model-free control and model-based “mental simulation” appears to be the basis for computational and data efficiency of the brain. How the brain efficiently acquires and flexibly combines prediction and control modules is a major open problem in neuroscience and its solution should help developments of more flexible and autonomous AI and robotics.