To make judgments, brain must be able to infer the state of the world based on often incomplete and ambiguous evidence. To probe neural circuits that perform the computations underlying such judgments, we developed a behavioral task for mice that required them to detect sustained increases in the speed of a continuously varying visual stimulus. In this talk, I will present evidence that the responses of secondary motor cortex to stimulus fluctuations in this task are consistent with updates of the animal’s state of belief that the change has occurred. These results establish a framework for mechanistic inquiries into neural circuits underlying inference during perceptual decision-making.