Bayesian Statistics seminars

How do people learn in real-world environments where the space of possible actions can be vast or even infinite? The study of human learning has made rapid progress in past decades, from discovering the neural substrate of reward prediction errors, to building AI capable of mastering the game of Go. Yet this line of research has primarily focused on learning through repeated interactions with the same stimuli. How are humans able to rapidly adapt to novel situations and learn from such sparse examples? I propose a theory of how generalization guides human learning, by making predictions about which unobserved options are most promising to explore. Inspired by Roger Shepard’s law of generalization, I show how a Bayesian function learning model provides a mechanism for generalizing limited experiences to a wide set of novel possibilities, based on the simple principle that similar actions produce similar outcomes. This model of generalization generates predictions about the expected reward and underlying uncertainty of unexplored options, where both are vital components in how people actively explore the world. This model allows us to explain developmental differences in the explorative behavior of children, and suggests a general principle of learning across spatial, conceptual, and structured domains.

Ideas about optimization are at the core of how we approach biological complexity. Quantitative predictions about biological systems have been successfully derived from first principles in the context of efficient coding, metabolic and transport networks, evolution, reinforcement learning, and decision making, by postulating that a system has evolved to optimize some utility function under biophysical constraints. Yet as normative theories become increasingly high-dimensional and optimal solutions stop being unique, it gets progressively hard to judge whether theoretical predictions are consistent with, or "close to", data. I will illustrate these issues using efficient coding applied to simple neuronal models as well as to a complex and realistic biochemical reaction network. As a solution, we developed a statistical framework which smoothly interpolates between ab initio optimality predictions and Bayesian parameter inference from data, while also permitting statistically rigorous tests of optimality hypotheses.

Bursts in gamma and other frequency ranges are thought to contribute to the efficiency of working memory or communication tasks. Abnormalities in bursts have also been associated with motor and psychiatric disorders. The determinants of burst generation are not known, specifically how single cell and connectivity parameters influence burst statistics and the corresponding brain states. We first present a generic mathematical model for burst generation in an excitatory-inhibitory (EI) network with self-couplings. The resulting equations for the stochastic phase and envelope of the rhythm’s fluctuations are shown to depend on only two meta-parameters that combine all the network parameters. They allow us to identify different regimes of amplitude excursions, and to highlight the supportive role that network finite-size effects and noisy inputs to the EI network can have. We discuss how burst attributes, such as their durations and peak frequency content, depend on the network parameters. In practice, the problem above follows the a priori challenge of fitting such E-I spiking networks to single neuron or population data. Thus, the second part of the talk will discuss a novel method to fit mesoscale dynamics using single neuron data along with a low-dimensional, and hence statistically tractable, single neuron model. The mesoscopic representation is obtained by approximating a population of neurons as multiple homogeneous ‘pools’ of neurons, and modelling the dynamics of the aggregate population activity within each pool. We derive the likelihood of both single-neuron and connectivity parameters given this activity, which can then be used to either optimize parameters by gradient ascent on the log-likelihood, or to perform Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We illustrate this approach using an E-I network of generalized integrate-and-fire neurons for which mesoscopic dynamics have been previously derived. We show that both single-neuron and connectivity parameters can be adequately recovered from simulated data.