Theoretical Ecology seminars

Sanne Evers introduces the first forecasting challenge organized by the European Ecological Forecasting Initiative. The challenge uses long-running observations from Doñana National Park in southern Spain to support short-term predictions of vegetation indices and the abundance of multiple shrub species. Forecasting these changes can inform habitat management, productivity assessments and conservation decisions under climatic and hydrological pressures. The seminar explains why Doñana’s range of habitats and monitoring infrastructure offer a useful setting for comparing predictions before new observations become available. It also discusses lessons from developing the challenge and planned next steps, with participation encouraged across ecological disciplines and levels of forecasting experience.

A major unresolved question in microbiome research is whether the complex ecological patterns observed in surveys of natural communities can be explained and predicted by fundamental, quantitative principles. Bridging theory and experiment is hampered by the multiplicity of ecological processes that simultaneously affect community assembly and a lack of theoretical tools for modeling diverse ecosystems. Here, I will present a simple ecological model of microbial communities that reproduces large-scale ecological patterns observed across multiple natural and experimental settings including compositional gradients, clustering by environment, diversity/harshness correlations, and nestedness. Surprisingly, our model works despite having a “random metabolisms” and “random consumer preferences”. This raises the natural of question of why random ecosystems can describe real-world experimental data. In the second, more theoretical part of the talk, I will answer this question by showing that when a community becomes diverse enough, it will always self-organize into a stable state whose properties are well captured by a “typical random ecosystems”.