EEFI’s First Forecasting Challenge: Doñana National Park

Sanne Evers introduces the first forecasting challenge organized by the European Ecological Forecasting Initiative. The challenge uses long-running observations from Doñana National Park in southern Spain to support short-term predictions of vegetation indices and the abundance of multiple shrub species. Forecasting these changes can inform habitat management, productivity assessments and conservation decisions under climatic and hydrological pressures. The seminar explains why Doñana’s range of habitats and monitoring infrastructure offer a useful setting for comparing predictions before new observations become available. It also discusses lessons from developing the challenge and planned next steps, with participation encouraged across ecological disciplines and levels of forecasting experience.