ePoster · Cognition
Putting the Bayesian confidence hypothesis to rest
Kai Xue · Neuromatch 5
Wed, Sep 28, 2022
Influential models of confidence generation postulate that confidence computation is Bayesian, that is, confidence reflects the posterior probability that a decision is correct. Although several recent studies have found evidence against a strictly Bayesian account in the context of relatively complex tasks, the Bayesian confidence model remains dominant for simpler tasks. Here, we performed extensive comparison of 32 models that implemented either Bayesian or distance-to-criterion confidence computations, and systematically differed in their auxiliary assumptions. We fit all models to three