Human movement disorders and pharmacological studies have long suggested molecular dopamine modulates the pace of the internal clock. But how does the endogenous dopaminergic system influence the timing of our movements? We examined the relationship between dopaminergic signaling and the timing of reward-related, self-timed movements in mice. Animals were trained to initiate licking after a self-timed interval following a start cue; reward was delivered if the animal’s first lick fell within a rewarded window (3.3-7 s). The first-lick timing distributions exhibited the scalar property, and we leveraged the considerable variability in these distributions to determine how the activity of the dopaminergic system related to the animals’ timing. Surprisingly, dopaminergic signals ramped-up over seconds between the start-timing cue and the self-timed movement, with variable dynamics that predicted the movement/reward time, even on single trials. Steeply rising signals preceded early initiation, whereas slowly rising signals preceded later initiation. Higher baseline signals also predicted earlier self-timed movement. Optogenetic activation of dopamine neurons during self-timing did not trigger immediate movements, but rather caused systematic early-shifting of the timing distribution, whereas inhibition caused late-shifting, as if dopaminergic manipulation modulated the moment-to-moment probability of unleashing the planned movement. Consistent with this view, the dynamics of the endogenous dopaminergic signals quantitatively predicted the moment-by-moment probability of movement initiation. We conclude that ramping dopaminergic signals, potentially encoding dynamic reward expectation, probabilistically modulate the moment-by-moment decision of when to move. (Based on work from Hamilos et al., eLife, 2021).