opportunity cost
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On finding what you’re (not) looking for: prospects and challenges for AI-driven discovery
Recent high-profile scientific achievements by machine learning (ML) and especially deep learning (DL) systems have reinvigorated interest in ML for automated scientific discovery (eg, Wang et al. 2023). Much of this work is motivated by the thought that DL methods might facilitate the efficient discovery of phenomena, hypotheses, or even models or theories more efficiently than traditional, theory-driven approaches to discovery. This talk considers some of the more specific obstacles to automated, DL-driven discovery in frontier science, focusing on gravitational-wave astrophysics (GWA) as a representative case study. In the first part of the talk, we argue that despite these efforts, prospects for DL-driven discovery in GWA remain uncertain. In the second part, we advocate a shift in focus towards the ways DL can be used to augment or enhance existing discovery methods, and the epistemic virtues and vices associated with these uses. We argue that the primary epistemic virtue of many such uses is to decrease opportunity costs associated with investigating puzzling or anomalous signals, and that the right framework for evaluating these uses comes from philosophical work on pursuitworthiness.
Chemistry of the adaptive mind: lessons from dopamine
The human brain faces a variety of computational dilemmas, including the flexibility/stability, the speed/accuracy and the labor/leisure tradeoff. I will argue that striatal dopamine is particularly well suited to dynamically regulate these computational tradeoffs depending on constantly changing task demands. This working hypothesis is grounded in evidence from recent studies on learning, motivation and cognitive control in human volunteers, using chemical PET, psychopharmacology, and/or fMRI. These studies also begin to elucidate the mechanisms underlying the huge variability in catecholaminergic drug effects across different individuals and across different task contexts. For example, I will demonstrate how effects of the most commonly used psychostimulant methylphenidate on learning, Pavlovian and effortful instrumental control depend on fluctuations in current environmental volatility, on individual differences in working memory capacity and on opportunity cost respectively.
The ubiquity of opportunity cost: Foraging and beyond
A key insight from the foraging literature is the importance of assessing the overall environmental quality — via global reward rate or similar measures, which capture the opportunity cost of time and can guide behavioral allocation toward relatively richer options. Meanwhile, the majority of research in decision neuroscience and computational psychiatry has focused instead on how choices are guided by much more local, event-locked evaluations: of individual situations, actions, or outcomes. I review a combination of research and theoretical speculation from my lab and others that emphasizes the role of foraging's average rewards and opportunity costs in a much larger range of decision problems, including risk, time discounting, vigor, cognitive control, and deliberation. The broad range of behaviors affected by this type of evaluation gives a new theoretical perspective on the effects of stress and autonomic mobilization, and on mood and the broad range of symptoms associated with mood disorders.
Deliberation gated by opportunity cost adapts to context with urgency in non-human primates
COSYNE 2022
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