Macroeconomics seminars

Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt examine why technological innovation can sustain economic growth despite the disruption it creates. Mokyr considers the historical development of useful knowledge, the connection between understanding and invention, and the institutional and political conditions needed for continuing progress. Aghion develops the economics of creative destruction, connecting innovation incentives with entry, incumbent firms and competition. He discusses how theoretical models and empirical evidence inform policies intended to support productivity growth. Howitt explains the development of the creative-destruction growth model and explores implications for competition, patent policy, international trade and technological change. The lectures also consider artificial intelligence and employment, distinguishing the historical resilience of growth from uncertainty about new forms of automation.

This research panel explores how large and unconventional datasets can produce high-frequency inflation forecasts. Its starting point is renewed concern about inflation following substantial monetary and fiscal stimulus. Alberto Cavallo presents research on real-time inflation measurement. Yves Lemperiere, Adam Rej, José Scheinkman and Michael Woodford join the discussion of alternative data and its economic and financial applications. The panel connects timely measurement with the problem of assessing inflation while conventional economic statistics arrive with a delay.

Mariana Mazzucato, William Janeway and Sidney Winter discuss the role of government in innovation, from basic research through commercialisation. Mazzucato challenges the view that the public sector should simply withdraw and allow private enterprise to innovate, arguing that public institutions have often taken risks that businesses were unwilling to bear. The panel examines public investment across the innovation process and the consequences of shrinking the budgets of agencies involved in technological development. It asks whether governments should actively help create markets as well as address market failures, and how public and private institutions can contribute to economic growth.