Topic: belief updating

Many decisions under uncertainty entail dynamic belief updating: multiple pieces of evidence informing about the state of the environment are accumulated across time to infer the environmental state, and choose a corresponding action. Traditionally, this process has been conceptualized as a linear and perfect (i.e., without loss) integration of sensory information along purely feedforward sensory-motor pathways. Yet, natural environments can undergo hidden changes in their state, which requires a non-linear accumulation of decision evidence that strikes a tradeoff between stability and flexibi

Our brains predict future sensory input based on their current beliefs about the world around us, but interpreting prediction errors can be challenging in a volatile environment because they can be caused by stochastic sensory noise or by outdated predictions. Noisy signals should be integrated with prior beliefs to improve precision, but the two should be segregated when environmental changes render prior beliefs irrelevant. Bayesian inference provides a statistically optimal solution to deal with such problems of causal uncertainty [1]. However, the method quickly becomes memory intensive an