Observational data

How can learning systems recommend actions that prevent an undesirable predicted outcome? Rehearsal learning approaches this problem through influence relations, but existing parametric assumptions can limit its use in complex systems. This talk presents a non-parametric method based on conditional mean embeddings. It expresses the objective in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, replaces a discontinuous desirability indicator with a smooth Probit surrogate, and uses nested kernel ridge regression to estimate outcome distributions conditional on actions. The resulting estimator can be identifi

Observational data have become a popular source of evidence for causal effects when no randomized controlled trial exists, or to supplement information provided by those. In practice, a wide range of designs and analytical choices exist, and one recent approach relies on the target trial emulation framework. This framework is particularly well suited to mimic what could be obtained in a specific randomized controlled trial, while avoiding time-related selection biases. In this abstract, we present how this framework could be useful to emulate trials in malignant melanoma, and the challenges fa

…difficulties in impact evaluation with observational data, COVID-19 NPI policy evaluation is complicated by additional challenges related to infectious disease dynamics and lags, lack of direct observation of key outcomes, and a multiplicity of interventions occurring on an accelerated time scale. Randomized controlled trials also suffer from what is feasible and ethical to randomize as well as the sheer scale, scope, time, and res