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SeminarPhysics of LifeRecording

Mutation induced infection waves in diseases like COVID-19

Fabian Jan Schwarzendahl
Heinrich Heine University, Dusseldorf
Oct 10, 2021

After more than 4 million deaths worldwide, the ongoing vaccination to conquer the COVID-19 disease is now competing with the emergence of increasingly contagious mutations, repeatedly supplanting earlier strains. Following the near-absence of historical examples of the long-time evolution of infectious diseases under similar circumstances, models are crucial to exemplify possible scenarios. Accordingly, in the present work we systematically generalize the popular susceptible-infected-recovered model to account for mutations leading to repeatedly occurring new strains, which we coarse grain based on tools from statistical mechanics to derive a model predicting the most likely outcomes. The model predicts that mutations can induce a super exponential growth of infection numbers at early times, which self-amplify to giant infection waves which are caused by a positive feedback loop between infection numbers and mutations and lead to a simultaneous infection of the majority of the population. At later stages -- if vaccination progresses too slowly -- mutations can interrupt an ongoing decrease of infection numbers and can cause infection revivals which occur as single waves or even as whole wave trains featuring alternative periods of decreasing and increasing infection numbers. Our results might be useful for discussions regarding the importance of a release of vaccine-patents to reduce the risk of mutation-induced infection revivals but also to coordinate the release of measures following a downwards trend of infection numbers.

SeminarPhysics of Life

SARC-CoV-2 modeling: What have we learned from this pandemic about how (not) to model disease spread?

Workshop, Multiple Speakers
Emory University
Jan 21, 2021

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is awash in data, including daily, spatially-resolved COVID case data, virus sequence data, patients `omics data, and mobility data. Journals are now also awash in studies that make use of quantitative modeling approaches to gain insight into the geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its temporal dynamics, as well as studies that predict the impact of control strategies on SARS-CoV-2 circulation. Some, but by no means all, of these studies are informed by the massive amounts of available data. Some, but by no means all, of these studies have been useful — in that their predictions revealed something beyond simple back of the envelope calculations. To summarize some of these findings, in this symposium, we will address questions such as: What do we want from models of disease spread? What can and should be predicted? Which data are the most useful for predictions? When do we need mechanistic models? What have we learned about how to model disease spread from unmet and/or conflicting predictions? The workshop speakers will explore these questions from different perspectives on what data need to be considered and how models can be evaluated. As at other TMLS workshops, each speaker will deliver a 10-minute talk with ample time set aside for moderated questions/discussion. We expect the talks to be provocative and bold, while respecting different perspectives.

SeminarPhysics of LifeRecording

Simons-Emory Workshop on Neural Dynamics: What could neural dynamics have to say about neural computation, and do we know how to listen?

Workshop, Multiple Speakers
Emory University
Dec 4, 2020

Speakers will deliver focused 10-minute talks, with periods reserved for broader discussion on topics at the intersection of neural dynamics and computation. Organizer & Moderator: Chethan Pandarinath - Emory University and Georgia Tech Speakers & Discussants: Adrienne Fairhall - U Washington Mehrdad Jazayeri - MIT John Krakauer - John Hopkins Francesca Mastrogiuseppe - Gatsby / UCL Abigail Person - U Colorado Abigail Russo - Princeton Krishna Shenoy - Stanford Saurabh Vyas - Columbia

SeminarPhysics of Life

Untitled Seminar

Multiple Speakers
Multiple
Jul 31, 2020

The symposium provides an opportunity for ECRs working in biophysical research to get together and to share their research. Although the symposium is primarily aimed at ECRs, we welcome everyone with an interest in biophysical sciences to join in the lively discussions and questions. This half day symposium will feature short talks and flash-talks from a range of ECRs around the biophysics theme. Afterwards there will be a virtual poster session with open discussions. We warmly invite both domestic and international ECRs to present at/attend this event.

SeminarPhysics of LifeRecording

Physics of Behavior: Now that we can track (most) everything, what can we do with the data?

Workshop, Multiple Speakers
Emory University
Apr 30, 2020

We will organize the workshop around one question: “Now that we can track (most) everything, what can we do with the data?” Given the recent dramatic advances in technology, we now have behavioral data sets with orders of magnitude more accuracy, dimensionality, diversity, and size than we had even a few years ago. That being said, there is still little agreement as to what theoretical frameworks can inform our understanding of these data sets and suggest new experiments we can perform. We hope that after this workshop we’ll see a variety of new ideas and perhaps gain some inspiration. We have invited eight speakers, each studying different systems, scales, and topics, to provide 10 minute presentations focused on the above question, with another 10 minutes set aside for questions/discussions (moderated by the two of us). Although we naturally expect speakers to include aspects of their own work, we have encouraged all of them to think broadly and provocatively. We are also hoping to organize some breakout sessions after the talks so that we can have some more expanded discussions about topics arising during the meeting.

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