Latest

SeminarPhysics of LifeRecording

Mutation induced infection waves in diseases like COVID-19

Fabian Jan Schwarzendahl
Heinrich Heine University, Dusseldorf
Oct 11, 2021

After more than 4 million deaths worldwide, the ongoing vaccination to conquer the COVID-19 disease is now competing with the emergence of increasingly contagious mutations, repeatedly supplanting earlier strains. Following the near-absence of historical examples of the long-time evolution of infectious diseases under similar circumstances, models are crucial to exemplify possible scenarios. Accordingly, in the present work we systematically generalize the popular susceptible-infected-recovered model to account for mutations leading to repeatedly occurring new strains, which we coarse grain based on tools from statistical mechanics to derive a model predicting the most likely outcomes. The model predicts that mutations can induce a super exponential growth of infection numbers at early times, which self-amplify to giant infection waves which are caused by a positive feedback loop between infection numbers and mutations and lead to a simultaneous infection of the majority of the population. At later stages -- if vaccination progresses too slowly -- mutations can interrupt an ongoing decrease of infection numbers and can cause infection revivals which occur as single waves or even as whole wave trains featuring alternative periods of decreasing and increasing infection numbers. Our results might be useful for discussions regarding the importance of a release of vaccine-patents to reduce the risk of mutation-induced infection revivals but also to coordinate the release of measures following a downwards trend of infection numbers.

SeminarPhysics of Life

“Discovery of Novel Gain-of-Function Mutations Guided by Structure-Based Deep Learning”

Ross Thyer
Rice University
Aug 25, 2020

Life of biological molecules spans time and length scales relevant at atomic to cellular time and length scales. Hence, novel molecular modeling approaches are required to be inherently multi-scale. Here we describe multiple methodologies developed in our laboratory: rapid discrete molecular dynamics simulation algorithm, protein design and structural refinement tools. Using these methodologies, we describe therapeutic strategies to combat this HIV and cancer, as well as design novel approaches for controlling proteins in living cells and organisms.

mutations coverage

4 items

Seminar4
Domain spotlight

Explore how mutations research is advancing inside Physics of Life.

Visit domain