From Patterns to Processes: Stochastic Dynamics and the Emergence of Ecological Complexity

How do elementary biological events give rise to ecological community patterns, epidemic behaviour and collective population dynamics? This seminar develops a mechanistic view using Markov jump processes for birth, death, competition, dispersal, infection and recovery. These models connect individual events to biodiversity gradients, species abundance distributions and disease persistence. It examines the roles of demographic stochasticity, environmental variation, spatial heterogeneity and species interactions, highlighting mathematical similarities and differences across ecological and epidemiological systems. The inverse problem is also considered: inferring underlying mechanisms and interaction structures from macroscopic fluctuations and time-series data. Together, stochastic modelling and statistical inference provide a framework for studying ecological complexity and community stability.