Precision and Temporal Stability of Directionality Inferences from Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation (GIMME) Brain Network Models

The Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation (GIMME) framework has emerged as a promising method for characterizing connections between brain regions in functional neuroimaging data. Two of the most appealing features of this framework are its ability to estimate the directionality of connections between network nodes and its ability to determine whether those connections apply to everyone in a sample (group-level) or just to one person (individual-level). However, there are outstanding questions about the validity and stability of these estimates, including: 1) how recovery of connection directionality is affected by features of data sets such as scan length and autoregressive effects, which may be strong in some imaging modalities (resting state fMRI, fNIRS) but weaker in others (task fMRI); and 2) whether inferences about directionality at the group and individual levels are stable across time. This talk will provide an overview of the GIMME framework and describe relevant results from a large-scale simulation study that assesses directionality recovery under various conditions and a separate project that investigates the temporal stability of GIMME’s inferences in the Human Connectome Project data set. Analyses from these projects demonstrate that estimates of directionality are most precise when autoregressive and cross-lagged relations in the data are relatively strong, and that inferences about the directionality of group-level connections, specifically, appear to be stable across time. Implications of these findings for the interpretation of directional connectivity estimates in different types of neuroimaging data will be discussed.