A prospective code for value in the serotonin system

Why do dorsal raphe serotonin neurons respond to reward, surprise, salience and uncertainty in ways that resist a single explanation? This talk proposes that serotonin activity encodes prospective value: a prediction of cumulative future reward. The model is motivated by the unusually strong and persistent spike-frequency adaptation of these neurons, which may support efficient and accurate predictions. It reproduces important qualitative features of serotonergic responses that earlier models miss and predicts measured in vivo firing rates more accurately than competing accounts. By treating previously separate responses as manifestations of one prospective value code, the work connects serotonin physiology to its computational roles in learning and behaviour.