Screen Savers : Protecting adolescent mental health in a digital world

In our rapidly evolving digital world, there is increasing concern about the impact of digital technologies and social media on the mental health of young people. Policymakers and the public are nervous. Psychologists are facing mounting pressures to deliver evidence that can inform policies and practices to safeguard both young people and society at large. However, research progress is slow while technological change is accelerating.My talk will reflect on this, both as a question of psychological science and metascience. Digital companies have designed highly popular environments that differ in important ways from traditional offline spaces. By revisiting the foundations of psychology (e.g. development and cognition) and considering digital changes' impact on theories and findings, we gain deeper insights into questions such as the following. (1) How do digital environments exacerbate developmental vulnerabilities that predispose young people to mental health conditions? (2) How do digital designs interact with cognitive and learning processes, formalised through computational approaches such as reinforcement learning or Bayesian modelling?However, we also need to face deeper questions about what it means to do science about new technologies and the challenge of keeping pace with technological advancements. Therefore, I discuss the concept of ‘fast science’, where, during crises, scientists might lower their standards of evidence to come to conclusions quicker. Might psychologists want to take this approach in the face of technological change and looming concerns? The talk concludes with a discussion of such strategies for 21st-century psychology research in the era of digitalization.

Decision and Behavior

This webinar addressed computational perspectives on how animals and humans make decisions, spanning normative, descriptive, and mechanistic models. Sam Gershman (Harvard) presented a capacity-limited reinforcement learning framework in which policies are compressed under an information bottleneck constraint. This approach predicts pervasive perseveration, stimulus‐independent “default” actions, and trade-offs between complexity and reward. Such policy compression reconciles observed action stochasticity and response time patterns with an optimal balance between learning capacity and performance. Jonathan Pillow (Princeton) discussed flexible descriptive models for tracking time-varying policies in animals. He introduced dynamic Generalized Linear Models (Sidetrack) and hidden Markov models (GLM-HMMs) that capture day-to-day and trial-to-trial fluctuations in choice behavior, including abrupt switches between “engaged” and “disengaged” states. These models provide new insights into how animals’ strategies evolve under learning. Finally, Kenji Doya (OIST) highlighted the importance of unifying reinforcement learning with Bayesian inference, exploring how cortical-basal ganglia networks might implement model-based and model-free strategies. He also described Japan’s Brain/MINDS 2.0 and Digital Brain initiatives, aiming to integrate multimodal data and computational principles into cohesive “digital brains.”

Perception in Autism: Testing Recent Bayesian Inference Accounts

Stress changes risk-taking by altering Bayesian magnitude coding in parietal cortex

Bayesian expectation in the perception of the timing of stimulus sequences

In the current virtual journal club Dr Di Luca will present findings from a series of psychophysical investigations where he measured sensitivity and bias in the perception of the timing of stimuli. He will present how improved detection with longer sequences and biases in reporting isochrony can be accounted for by optimal statistical predictions. Among his findings was also that the timing of stimuli that occasionally deviate from a regularly paced sequence is perceptually distorted to appear more regular. Such change depends on whether the context these sequences are presented is also regular. Dr Di Luca will present a Bayesian model for the combination of dynamically updated expectations, in the form of a priori probability, with incoming sensory information. These findings contribute to the understanding of how the brain processes temporal information to shape perceptual experiences.

Multisensory perception, learning, and memory

Note the later start time!

Tracking subjects' strategies in behavioural choice experiments at trial resolution

Psychology and neuroscience are increasingly looking to fine-grained analyses of decision-making behaviour, seeking to characterise not just the variation between subjects but also a subject's variability across time. When analysing the behaviour of each subject in a choice task, we ideally want to know not only when the subject has learnt the correct choice rule but also what the subject tried while learning. I introduce a simple but effective Bayesian approach to inferring the probability of different choice strategies at trial resolution. This can be used both for inferring when subjects learn, by tracking the probability of the strategy matching the target rule, and for inferring subjects use of exploratory strategies during learning. Applied to data from rodent and human decision tasks, we find learning occurs earlier and more often than estimated using classical approaches. Around both learning and changes in the rewarded rules the exploratory strategies of win-stay and lose-shift, often considered complementary, are consistently used independently. Indeed, we find the use of lose-shift is strong evidence that animals have latently learnt the salient features of a new rewarded rule. Our approach can be extended to any discrete choice strategy, and its low computational cost is ideally suited for real-time analysis and closed-loop control.

Virtual Brain Twins for Brain Medicine and Epilepsy

Over the past decade we have demonstrated that the fusion of subject-specific structural information of the human brain with mathematical dynamic models allows building biologically realistic brain network models, which have a predictive value, beyond the explanatory power of each approach independently. The network nodes hold neural population models, which are derived using mean field techniques from statistical physics expressing ensemble activity via collective variables. Our hybrid approach fuses data-driven with forward-modeling-based techniques and has been successfully applied to explain healthy brain function and clinical translation including aging, stroke and epilepsy. Here we illustrate the workflow along the example of epilepsy: we reconstruct personalized connectivity matrices of human epileptic patients using Diffusion Tensor weighted Imaging (DTI). Subsets of brain regions generating seizures in patients with refractory partial epilepsy are referred to as the epileptogenic zone (EZ). During a seizure, paroxysmal activity is not restricted to the EZ, but may recruit other healthy brain regions and propagate activity through large brain networks. The identification of the EZ is crucial for the success of neurosurgery and presents one of the historically difficult questions in clinical neuroscience. The application of latest techniques in Bayesian inference and model inversion, in particular Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, allows the estimation of the EZ, including estimates of confidence and diagnostics of performance of the inference. The example of epilepsy nicely underwrites the predictive value of personalized large-scale brain network models. The workflow of end-to-end modeling is an integral part of the European neuroinformatics platform EBRAINS and enables neuroscientists worldwide to build and estimate personalized virtual brains.

Internal representation of musical rhythm: transformation from sound to periodic beat

When listening to music, humans readily perceive and move along with a periodic beat. Critically, perception of a periodic beat is commonly elicited by rhythmic stimuli with physical features arranged in a way that is not strictly periodic. Hence, beat perception must capitalize on mechanisms that transform stimulus features into a temporally recurrent format with emphasized beat periodicity. Here, I will present a line of work that aims to clarify the nature and neural basis of this transformation. In these studies, electrophysiological activity was recorded as participants listened to rhythms known to induce perception of a consistent beat across healthy Western adults. The results show that the human brain selectively emphasizes beat representation when it is not acoustically prominent in the stimulus, and this transformation (i) can be captured non-invasively using surface EEG in adult participants, (ii) is already in place in 5- to 6-month-old infants, and (iii) cannot be fully explained by subcortical auditory nonlinearities. Moreover, as revealed by human intracerebral recordings, a prominent beat representation emerges already in the primary auditory cortex. Finally, electrophysiological recordings from the auditory cortex of a rhesus monkey show a significant enhancement of beat periodicities in this area, similar to humans. Taken together, these findings indicate an early, general auditory cortical stage of processing by which rhythmic inputs are rendered more temporally recurrent than they are in reality. Already present in non-human primates and human infants, this "periodized" default format could then be shaped by higher-level associative sensory-motor areas and guide movement in individuals with strongly coupled auditory and motor systems. Together, this highlights the multiplicity of neural processes supporting coordinated musical behaviors widely observed across human cultures.The experiments herein include: a motor timing task comparing the effects of movement vs non-movement with and without feedback (Exp. 1A & 1B), a transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) study on the role of the supplementary motor area (SMA) in transforming temporal information (Exp. 2), and a perceptual timing task investigating the effect of noisy movement on time perception with both visual and auditory modalities (Exp. 3A & 3B). Together, the results of these studies support the Bayesian cue combination framework, in that: movement improves the precision of time perception not only in perceptual timing tasks but also motor timing tasks (Exp. 1A & 1B), stimulating the SMA appears to disrupt the transformation of temporal information (Exp. 2), and when movement becomes unreliable or noisy there is no longer an improvement in precision of time perception (Exp. 3A & 3B). Although there is support for the proposed framework, more studies (i.e., fMRI, TMS, EEG, etc.) need to be conducted in order to better understand where and how this may be instantiated in the brain; however, this work provides a starting point to better understanding the intrinsic connection between time and movement

The Effects of Movement Parameters on Time Perception

Mobile organisms must be capable of deciding both where and when to move in order to keep up with a changing environment; therefore, a strong sense of time is necessary, otherwise, we would fail in many of our movement goals. Despite this intrinsic link between movement and timing, only recently has research begun to investigate the interaction. Two primary effects that have been observed include: movements biasing time estimates (i.e., affecting accuracy) as well as making time estimates more precise. The goal of this presentation is to review this literature, discuss a Bayesian cue combination framework to explain these effects, and discuss the experiments I have conducted to test the framework. The experiments herein include: a motor timing task comparing the effects of movement vs non-movement with and without feedback (Exp. 1A & 1B), a transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) study on the role of the supplementary motor area (SMA) in transforming temporal information (Exp. 2), and a perceptual timing task investigating the effect of noisy movement on time perception with both visual and auditory modalities (Exp. 3A & 3B). Together, the results of these studies support the Bayesian cue combination framework, in that: movement improves the precision of time perception not only in perceptual timing tasks but also motor timing tasks (Exp. 1A & 1B), stimulating the SMA appears to disrupt the transformation of temporal information (Exp. 2), and when movement becomes unreliable or noisy there is no longer an improvement in precision of time perception (Exp. 3A & 3B). Although there is support for the proposed framework, more studies (i.e., fMRI, TMS, EEG, etc.) need to be conducted in order to better understand where and how this may be instantiated in the brain; however, this work provides a starting point to better understanding the intrinsic connection between time and movement

Face and voice perception as a tool for characterizing perceptual decisions and metacognitive abilities across the general population and psychosis spectrum

Humans constantly make perceptual decisions on human faces and voices. These regularly come with the challenge of receiving only uncertain sensory evidence, resulting from noisy input and noisy neural processes. Efficiently adapting one’s internal decision system including prior expectations and subsequent metacognitive assessments to these challenges is crucial in everyday life. However, the exact decision mechanisms and whether these represent modifiable states remain unknown in the general population and clinical patients with psychosis. Using data from a laboratory-based sample of healthy controls and patients with psychosis as well as a complementary, large online sample of healthy controls, I will demonstrate how a combination of perceptual face and voice recognition decision fidelity, metacognitive ratings, and Bayesian computational modelling may be used as indicators to differentiate between non-clinical and clinical states in the future.

A Better Method to Quantify Perceptual Thresholds : Parameter-free, Model-free, Adaptive procedures

The ‘quantification’ of perception is arguably both one of the most important and most difficult aspects of perception study. This is particularly true in visual perception, in which the evaluation of the perceptual threshold is a pillar of the experimental process. The choice of the correct adaptive psychometric procedure, as well as the selection of the proper parameters, is a difficult but key aspect of the experimental protocol. For instance, Bayesian methods such as QUEST, require the a priori choice of a family of functions (e.g. Gaussian), which is rarely known before the experiment, as well as the specification of multiple parameters. Importantly, the choice of an ill-fitted function or parameters will induce costly mistakes and errors in the experimental process. In this talk we discuss the existing methods and introduce a new adaptive procedure to solve this problem, named, ZOOM (Zooming Optimistic Optimization of Models), based on recent advances in optimization and statistical learning. Compared to existing approaches, ZOOM is completely parameter free and model-free, i.e. can be applied on any arbitrary psychometric problem. Moreover, ZOOM parameters are self-tuned, thus do not need to be manually chosen using heuristics (eg. step size in the Staircase method), preventing further errors. Finally, ZOOM is based on state-of-the-art optimization theory, providing strong mathematical guarantees that are missing from many of its alternatives, while being the most accurate and robust in real life conditions. In our experiments and simulations, ZOOM was found to be significantly better than its alternative, in particular for difficult psychometric functions or when the parameters when not properly chosen. ZOOM is open source, and its implementation is freely available on the web. Given these advantages and its ease of use, we argue that ZOOM can improve the process of many psychophysics experiments.

The Secret Bayesian Life of Ring Attractor Networks

Efficient navigation requires animals to track their position, velocity and heading direction (HD). Some animals’ behavior suggests that they also track uncertainties about these navigational variables, and make strategic use of these uncertainties, in line with a Bayesian computation. Ring-attractor networks have been proposed to estimate and track these navigational variables, for instance in the HD system of the fruit fly Drosophila. However, such networks are not designed to incorporate a notion of uncertainty, and therefore seem unsuited to implement dynamic Bayesian inference. Here, we close this gap by showing that specifically tuned ring-attractor networks can track both a HD estimate and its associated uncertainty, thereby approximating a circular Kalman filter. We identified the network motifs required to integrate angular velocity observations, e.g., through self-initiated turns, and absolute HD observations, e.g., visual landmark inputs, according to their respective reliabilities, and show that these network motifs are present in the connectome of the Drosophila HD system. Specifically, our network encodes uncertainty in the amplitude of a localized bump of neural activity, thereby generalizing standard ring attractor models. In contrast to such standard attractors, however, proper Bayesian inference requires the network dynamics to operate in a regime away from the attractor state. More generally, we show that near-Bayesian integration is inherent in generic ring attractor networks, and that their amplitude dynamics can account for close-to-optimal reliability weighting of external evidence for a wide range of network parameters. This only holds, however, if their connection strengths allow the network to sufficiently deviate from the attractor state. Overall, our work offers a novel interpretation of ring attractor networks as implementing dynamic Bayesian integrators. We further provide a principled theoretical foundation for the suggestion that the Drosophila HD system may implement Bayesian HD tracking via ring attractor dynamics.

Gene-free landscape models for development

Fate decisions in developing tissues involve cells transitioning between a set of discrete cell states. Geometric models, often referred to as Waddington landscapes, are an appealing way to describe differentiation dynamics and developmental decisions. We consider the differentiation of neural and mesodermal cells from pluripotent mouse embryonic stem cells exposed to different combinations and durations of signalling factors. We developed a principled statistical approach using flow cytometry data to quantify differentiating cell states. Then, using a framework based on Catastrophe Theory and approximate Bayesian computation, we constructed the corresponding dynamical landscape. The result was a quantitative model that accurately predicted the proportions of neural and mesodermal cells differentiating in response to specific signalling regimes. Taken together, the approach we describe is broadly applicable for the quantitative analysis of differentiation dynamics and for determining the logic of developmental cell fate decisions.

Bayesian brains without probabilities

Spatial uncertainty provides a unifying account of navigation behavior and grid field deformations

To localize ourselves in an environment for spatial navigation, we rely on vision and self-motion inputs, which only provide noisy and partial information. It is unknown how the resulting uncertainty affects navigation behavior and neural representations. Here we show that spatial uncertainty underlies key effects of environmental geometry on navigation behavior and grid field deformations. We develop an ideal observer model, which continually updates probabilistic beliefs about its allocentric location by optimally combining noisy egocentric visual and self-motion inputs via Bayesian filtering. This model directly yields predictions for navigation behavior and also predicts neural responses under population coding of location uncertainty. We simulate this model numerically under manipulations of a major source of uncertainty, environmental geometry, and support our simulations by analytic derivations for its most salient qualitative features. We show that our model correctly predicts a wide range of experimentally observed effects of the environmental geometry and its change on homing response distribution and grid field deformation. Thus, our model provides a unifying, normative account for the dependence of homing behavior and grid fields on environmental geometry, and identifies the unavoidable uncertainty in navigation as a key factor underlying these diverse phenomena.

Do Capuchin Monkeys, Chimpanzees and Children form Overhypotheses from Minimal Input? A Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling Approach

Abstract concepts are a powerful tool to store information efficiently and to make wide-ranging predictions in new situations based on sparse data. Whereas looking-time studies point towards an early emergence of this ability in human infancy, other paradigms like the relational match to sample task often show a failure to detect abstract concepts like same and different until the late preschool years. Similarly, non-human animals have difficulties solving those tasks and often succeed only after long training regimes. Given the huge influence of small task modifications, there is an ongoing debate about the conclusiveness of these findings for the development and phylogenetic distribution of abstract reasoning abilities. Here, we applied the concept of “overhypotheses” which is well known in the infant and cognitive modeling literature to study the capabilities of 3 to 5-year-old children, chimpanzees, and capuchin monkeys in a unified and more ecologically valid task design. In a series of studies, participants themselves sampled reward items from multiple containers or witnessed the sampling process. Only when they detected the abstract pattern governing the reward distributions within and across containers, they could optimally guide their behavior and maximize the reward outcome in a novel test situation. We compared each species’ performance to the predictions of a probabilistic hierarchical Bayesian model capable of forming overhypotheses at a first and second level of abstraction and adapted to their species-specific reward preferences.

From natural scene statistics to multisensory integration: experiments, models and applications

To efficiently process sensory information, the brain relies on statistical regularities in the input. While generally improving the reliability of sensory estimates, this strategy also induces perceptual illusions that help reveal the underlying computational principles. Focusing on auditory and visual perception, in my talk I will describe how the brain exploits statistical regularities within and across the senses for the perception space, time and multisensory integration. In particular, I will show how results from a series of psychophysical experiments can be interpreted in the light of Bayesian Decision Theory, and I will demonstrate how such canonical computations can be implemented into simple and biologically plausible neural circuits. Finally, I will show how such principles of sensory information processing can be leveraged in virtual and augmented reality to overcome display limitations and expand human perception.

Suboptimal human inference inverts the bias-variance trade-off for decisions with asymmetric evidence

Solutions to challenging inference problems are often subject to a fundamental trade-off between bias (being systematically wrong) that is minimized with complex inference strategies and variance (being oversensitive to uncertain observations) that is minimized with simple inference strategies. However, this trade-off is based on the assumption that the strategies being considered are optimal for their given complexity and thus has unclear relevance to the frequently suboptimal inference strategies used by humans. We examined inference problems involving rare, asymmetrically available evidence, which a large population of human subjects solved using a diverse set of strategies that were suboptimal relative to the Bayesian ideal observer. These suboptimal strategies reflected an inversion of the classic bias-variance trade-off: subjects who used more complex, but imperfect, Bayesian-like strategies tended to have lower variance but high bias because of incorrect tuning to latent task features, whereas subjects who used simpler heuristic strategies tended to have higher variance because they operated more directly on the observed samples but displayed weaker, near-normative bias. Our results yield new insights into the principles that govern individual differences in behavior that depends on rare-event inference, and, more generally, about the information-processing trade-offs that are sensitive to not just the complexity, but also the optimality of the inference process.

Deep kernel methods

Deep neural networks (DNNs) with the flexibility to learn good top-layer representations have eclipsed shallow kernel methods without that flexibility. Here, we take inspiration from deep neural networks to develop a new family of deep kernel method. In a deep kernel method, there is a kernel at every layer, and the kernels are jointly optimized to improve performance (with strong regularisation). We establish the representational power of deep kernel methods, by showing that they perform exact inference in an infinitely wide Bayesian neural network or deep Gaussian process. Next, we conjecture that the deep kernel machine objective is unimodal, and give a proof of unimodality for linear kernels. Finally, we exploit the simplicity of the deep kernel machine loss to develop a new family of optimizers, based on a matrix equation from control theory, that converges in around 10 steps.

Design principles of adaptable neural codes

Behavior relies on the ability of sensory systems to infer changing properties of the environment from incoming sensory stimuli. However, the demands that detecting and adjusting to changes in the environment place on a sensory system often differ from the demands associated with performing a specific behavioral task. This necessitates neural coding strategies that can dynamically balance these conflicting needs. I will discuss our ongoing theoretical work to understand how this balance can best be achieved. We connect ideas from efficient coding and Bayesian inference to ask how sensory systems should dynamically allocate limited resources when the goal is to optimally infer changing latent states of the environment, rather than reconstruct incoming stimuli. We use these ideas to explore dynamic tradeoffs between the efficiency and speed of sensory adaptation schemes, and the downstream computations that these schemes might support. Finally, we derive families of codes that balance these competing objectives, and we demonstrate their close match to experimentally-observed neural dynamics during sensory adaptation. These results provide a unifying perspective on adaptive neural dynamics across a range of sensory systems, environments, and sensory tasks.

Conflict in Multisensory Perception

Multisensory perception is often studied through the effects of inter-sensory conflict, such as in the McGurk effect, the Ventriloquist illusion, and the Rubber Hand Illusion. Moreover, Bayesian approaches to cue fusion and causal inference overwhelmingly draw on cross-modal conflict to measure and to model multisensory perception. Given the prevalence of conflict, it is remarkable that accounts of multisensory perception have so far neglected the theory of conflict monitoring and cognitive control, established about twenty years ago. I hope to make a case for the role of conflict monitoring and resolution during multisensory perception. To this end, I will present EEG and fMRI data showing that cross-modal conflict in speech, resulting in either integration or segregation, triggers neural mechanisms of conflict detection and resolution. I will also present data supporting a role of these mechanisms during perceptual conflict in general, using Binocular Rivalry, surrealistic imagery, and cinema. Based on this preliminary evidence, I will argue that it is worth considering the potential role of conflict in multisensory perception and its incorporation in a causal inference framework. Finally, I will raise some potential problems associated with this proposal.

Adaptive bottleneck to pallium for sequence memory, path integration and mixed selectivity representation

Spike-driven adaptation involves intracellular mechanisms that are initiated by neural firing and lead to the subsequent reduction of spiking rate followed by a recovery back to baseline. We report on long (>0.5 second) recovery times from adaptation in a thalamic-like structure in weakly electric fish. This adaptation process is shown via modeling and experiment to encode in a spatially invariant manner the time intervals between event encounters, e.g. with landmarks as the animal learns the location of food. These cells also come in two varieties, ones that care only about the time since the last encounter, and others that care about the history of encounters. We discuss how the two populations can share in the task of representing sequences of events, supporting path integration and converting from ego-to-allocentric representations. The heterogeneity of the population parameters enables the representation and Bayesian decoding of time sequences of events which may be put to good use in path integration and hilus neuron function in hippocampus. Finally we discuss how all the cells of this gateway to the pallium exhibit mixed selectivity of social features of their environment. The data and computational modeling further reveal that, in contrast to a long-held belief, these gymnotiform fish are endowed with a corollary discharge, albeit only for social signalling.

A universal probabilistic spike count model reveals ongoing modulation of neural variability in head direction cell activity in mice

Neural responses are variable: even under identical experimental conditions, single neuron and population responses typically differ from trial to trial and across time. Recent work has demonstrated that this variability has predictable structure, can be modulated by sensory input and behaviour, and bears critical signatures of the underlying network dynamics and computations. However, current methods for characterising neural variability are primarily geared towards sensory coding in the laboratory: they require trials with repeatable experimental stimuli and behavioural covariates. In addition, they make strong assumptions about the parametric form of variability, rely on assumption-free but data-inefficient histogram-based approaches, or are altogether ill-suited for capturing variability modulation by covariates. Here we present a universal probabilistic spike count model that eliminates these shortcomings. Our method uses scalable Bayesian machine learning techniques to model arbitrary spike count distributions (SCDs) with flexible dependence on observed as well as latent covariates. Without requiring repeatable trials, it can flexibly capture covariate-dependent joint SCDs, and provide interpretable latent causes underlying the statistical dependencies between neurons. We apply the model to recordings from a canonical non-sensory neural population: head direction cells in the mouse. We find that variability in these cells defies a simple parametric relationship with mean spike count as assumed in standard models, its modulation by external covariates can be comparably strong to that of the mean firing rate, and slow low-dimensional latent factors explain away neural correlations. Our approach paves the way to understanding the mechanisms and computations underlying neural variability under naturalistic conditions, beyond the realm of sensory coding with repeatable stimuli.

Adaptation-driven sensory detection and sequence memory

Spike-driven adaptation involves intracellular mechanisms that are initiated by spiking and lead to the subsequent reduction of spiking rate. One of its consequences is the temporal patterning of spike trains, as it imparts serial correlations between interspike intervals in baseline activity. Surprisingly the hidden adaptation states that lead to these correlations themselves exhibit quasi-independence. This talk will first discuss recent findings about the role of such adaptation in suppressing noise and extending sensory detection to weak stimuli that leave the firing rate unchanged. Further, a matching of the post-synaptic responses to the pre-synaptic adaptation time scale enables a recovery of the quasi-independence property, and can explain observations of correlations between post-synaptic EPSPs and behavioural detection thresholds. We then consider the involvement of spike-driven adaptation in the representation of intervals between sensory events. We discuss the possible link of this time-stamping mechanism to the conversion of egocentric to allocentric coordinates. The heterogeneity of the population parameters enables the representation and Bayesian decoding of time sequences of events which may be put to good use in path integration and hilus neuron function in hippocampus.

The role of the primate prefrontal cortex in inferring the state of the world and predicting change

In an ever-changing environment, uncertainty is omnipresent. To deal with this, organisms have evolved mechanisms that allow them to take advantage of environmental regularities in order to make decisions robustly and adjust their behavior efficiently, thus maximizing their chances of survival. In this talk, I will present behavioral evidence that animals perform model-based state inference to predict environmental state changes and adjust their behavior rapidly, rather than slowly updating choice values. This model-based inference process can be described using Bayesian change-point models. Furthermore, I will show that neural populations in the prefrontal cortex accurately predict behavioral switches, and that the activity of these populations is associated with Bayesian estimates. In addition, we will see that learning leads to the emergence of a high-dimensional representational subspace that can be reused when the animals re-learn a previously learned set of action-value associations. Altogether, these findings highlight the role of the PFC in representing a belief about the current state of the world.

Zero-shot visual reasoning with probabilistic analogical mapping

There has been a recent surge of interest in the question of whether and how deep learning algorithms might be capable of abstract reasoning, much of which has centered around datasets based on Raven’s Progressive Matrices (RPM), a visual analogy problem set commonly employed to assess fluid intelligence. This has led to the development of algorithms that are capable of solving RPM-like problems directly from pixel-level inputs. However, these algorithms require extensive direct training on analogy problems, and typically generalize poorly to novel problem types. This is in stark contrast to human reasoners, who are capable of solving RPM and other analogy problems zero-shot — that is, with no direct training on those problems. Indeed, it’s this capacity for zero-shot reasoning about novel problem types, i.e. fluid intelligence, that RPM was originally designed to measure. I will present some results from our recent efforts to model this capacity for zero-shot reasoning, based on an extension of a recently proposed approach to analogical mapping we refer to as Probabilistic Analogical Mapping (PAM). Our RPM model uses deep learning to extract attributed graph representations from pixel-level inputs, and then performs alignment of objects between source and target analogs using gradient descent to optimize a graph-matching objective. This extended version of PAM features a number of new capabilities that underscore the flexibility of the overall approach, including 1) the capacity to discover solutions that emphasize either object similarity or relation similarity, based on the demands of a given problem, 2) the ability to extract a schema representing the overall abstract pattern that characterizes a problem, and 3) the ability to directly infer the answer to a problem, rather than relying on a set of possible answer choices. This work suggests that PAM is a promising framework for modeling human zero-shot reasoning.

Probabilistic Analogical Mapping with Semantic Relation Networks

Hongjing Lu will present a new computational model of Probabilistic Analogical Mapping (PAM, in collaboration with Nick Ichien and Keith Holyoak) that finds systematic correspondences between inputs generated by machine learning. The model adopts a Bayesian framework for probabilistic graph matching, operating on semantic relation networks constructed from distributed representations of individual concepts (word embeddings created by Word2vec) and of relations between concepts (created by our BART model). We have used PAM to simulate a broad range of phenomena involving analogical mapping by both adults and children. Our approach demonstrates that human-like analogical mapping can emerge from comparison mechanisms applied to rich semantic representations of individual concepts and relations. More details can be found https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2103/2103.16704.pdf

The neural dynamics of causal Inference across the cortical hierarchy

Bayesian distributional regression models for cognitive science

The assumed data generating models (response distributions) of experimental or observational data in cognitive science have become increasingly complex over the past decades. This trend follows a revolution in model estimation methods and a drastic increase in computing power available to researchers. Today, higher-level cognitive functions can well be captured by and understood through computational cognitive models, a common example being drift diffusion models for decision processes. Such models are often expressed as the combination of two modeling layers. The first layer is the response distribution with corresponding distributional parameters tailored to the cognitive process under investigation. The second layer are latent models of the distributional parameters that capture how those parameters vary as a function of design, stimulus, or person characteristics, often in an additive manner. Such cognitive models can thus be understood as special cases of distributional regression models where multiple distributional parameters, rather than just a single centrality parameter, are predicted by additive models. Because of their complexity, distributional models are quite complicated to estimate, but recent advances in Bayesian estimation methods and corresponding software make them increasingly more feasible. In this talk, I will speak about the specification, estimation, and post-processing of Bayesian distributional regression models and how they can help to better understand cognitive processes.

Design principles of adaptable neural codes

Behavior relies on the ability of sensory systems to infer changing properties of the environment from incoming sensory stimuli. However, the demands that detecting and adjusting to changes in the environment place on a sensory system often differ from the demands associated with performing a specific behavioral task. This necessitates neural coding strategies that can dynamically balance these conflicting needs. I will discuss our ongoing theoretical work to understand how this balance can best be achieved. We connect ideas from efficient coding and Bayesian inference to ask how sensory systems should dynamically allocate limited resources when the goal is to optimally infer changing latent states of the environment, rather than reconstruct incoming stimuli. We use these ideas to explore dynamic tradeoffs between the efficiency and speed of sensory adaptation schemes, and the downstream computations that these schemes might support. Finally, we derive families of codes that balance these competing objectives, and we demonstrate their close match to experimentally-observed neural dynamics during sensory adaptation. These results provide a unifying perspective on adaptive neural dynamics across a range of sensory systems, environments, and sensory tasks.

Neural dynamics underlying temporal inference

Animals possess the ability to effortlessly and precisely time their actions even though information received from the world is often ambiguous and is inadvertently transformed as it passes through the nervous system. With such uncertainty pervading through our nervous systems, we could expect that much of human and animal behavior relies on inference that incorporates an important additional source of information, prior knowledge of the environment. These concepts have long been studied under the framework of Bayesian inference with substantial corroboration over the last decade that human time perception is consistent with such models. We, however, know little about the neural mechanisms that enable Bayesian signatures to emerge in temporal perception. I will present our work on three facets of this problem, how Bayesian estimates are encoded in neural populations, how these estimates are used to generate time intervals, and how prior knowledge for these tasks is acquired and optimized by neural circuits. We trained monkeys to perform an interval reproduction task and found their behavior to be consistent with Bayesian inference. Using insights from electrophysiology and in silico models, we propose a mechanism by which cortical populations encode Bayesian estimates and utilize them to generate time intervals. Thereafter, I will present a circuit model for how temporal priors can be acquired by cerebellar machinery leading to estimates consistent with Bayesian theory. Based on electrophysiology and anatomy experiments in rodents, I will provide some support for this model. Overall, these findings attempt to bridge insights from normative frameworks of Bayesian inference with potential neural implementations for the acquisition, estimation, and production of timing behaviors.

Learning in pain: probabilistic inference and (mal)adaptive control

Pain is a major clinical problem affecting 1 in 5 people in the world. There are unresolved questions that urgently require answers to treat pain effectively, a crucial one being how the feeling of pain arises from brain activity. Computational models of pain consider how the brain processes noxious information and allow mapping neural circuits and networks to cognition and behaviour. To date, they have generally have assumed two largely independent processes: perceptual and/or predictive inference, typically modelled as an approximate Bayesian process, and action control, typically modelled as a reinforcement learning process. However, inference and control are intertwined in complex ways, challenging the clarity of this distinction. I will discuss how they may comprise a parallel hierarchical architecture that combines pain inference, information-seeking, and adaptive value-based control. Finally, I will discuss whether and how these learning processes might contribute to chronic pain.

Portable neuroscience: using devices and apps for diagnosis and treatment of neurological disease

Scientists work in laboratories; comfortable spaces which we equip and configure to be ideal for our needs. The scientific paradigm has been adopted by clinicians, who run diagnostic tests and treatments in fully equipped hospital facilities. Yet advances in technology mean that that increasingly many functions of a laboratory can be compressed into miniature devices, or even into a smartphone app. This has the potential to be transformative for healthcare in developing nations, allowing complex tests and interventions to be made available in every village. In this talk, I will give two examples of this approach from my recent work. In the field of stroke rehabilitation, I will present basic research which we have conducted in animals over the last decade. This reveals new ways to intervene and strengthen surviving pathways, which can be deployed in cheap electronic devices to enhance functional recovery. In degenerative disease, we have used Bayesian statistical methods to improve an algorithm to measure how rapidly a subject can stop an action. We then implemented this on a portable device and on a smartphone app. The measurement obtained can act as a useful screen for Parkinson’s Disease. I conclude with an outlook for the future of this approach, and an invitation to those who would be interesting in collaborating in rolling it out to in African settings.

Mice alternate between discrete strategies during perceptual decision-making

Classical models of perceptual decision-making assume that animals use a single, consistent strategy to integrate sensory evidence and form decisions during an experiment. In this talk, I aim to convince you that this common view is incorrect. I will show results from applying a latent variable framework, the “GLM-HMM”, to hundreds of thousands of trials of mouse choice data. Our analysis reveals that mice don’t lapse. Instead, mice switch back and forth between engaged and disengaged behavior within a single session, and each mode of behavior lasts tens to hundreds of trials.

Cognitive Psychometrics: Statistical Modeling of Individual Differences in Latent Processes

Many psychological theories assume that qualitatively different cognitive processes can result in identical responses. Multinomial processing tree (MPT) models allow researchers to disentangle latent cognitive processes based on observed response frequencies. Recently, MPT models have been extended to explicitly account for participant and item heterogeneity. These hierarchical Bayesian MPT models provide the opportunity to connect two traditionally isolated disciplines. Whereas cognitive psychology has often focused on the experimental validation of MPT model parameters on the group level, psychometrics provides the necessary concepts and tools for measuring differences in MPT parameters on the item or person level. Moreover, MPT parameters can be regressed on covariates to model latent processes as a function of personality traits or other person characteristics.

Top-down Modulation in Human Visual Cortex

Human vision flaunts a remarkable ability to recognize objects in the surrounding environment even in the absence of complete visual representation of these objects. This process is done almost intuitively and it was not until scientists had to tackle this problem in computer vision that they noticed its complexity. While current advances in artificial vision systems have made great strides exceeding human level in normal vision tasks, it has yet to achieve a similar robustness level. One cause of this robustness is the extensive connectivity that is not limited to a feedforward hierarchical pathway similar to the current state-of-the-art deep convolutional neural networks but also comprises recurrent and top-down connections. They allow the human brain to enhance the neural representations of degraded images in concordance with meaningful representations stored in memory. The mechanisms by which these different pathways interact are still not understood. In this seminar, studies concerning the effect of recurrent and top-down modulation on the neural representations resulting from viewing blurred images will be presented. Those studies attempted to uncover the role of recurrent and top-down connections in human vision. The results presented challenge the notion of predictive coding as a mechanism for top-down modulation of visual information during natural vision. They show that neural representation enhancement (sharpening) appears to be a more dominant process of different levels of visual hierarchy. They also show that inference in visual recognition is achieved through a Bayesian process between incoming visual information and priors from deeper processing regions in the brain.

Slowing down the body slows down time (perception)

Interval timing is a fundamental component action, and is susceptible to motor-related temporal distortions. Previous studies have shown that movement biases temporal estimates, but have primarily considered self-modulated movement only. However, real-world encounters often include situations in which movement is restricted or perturbed by environmental factors. In the following experiments, we introduced viscous movement environments to externally modulate movement and investigated the resulting effects on temporal perception. In two separate tasks, participants timed auditory intervals while moving a robotic arm that randomly applied four levels of viscosity. Results demonstrated that higher viscosity led to shorter perceived durations. Using a drift-diffusion model and a Bayesian observer model, we confirmed these biasing effects arose from perceptual mechanisms, instead of biases in decision making. These findings suggest that environmental perturbations are an important factor in movement-related temporal distortions, and enhance the current understanding of the interactions of motor activity and cognitive processes. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.26.355396v1

Generalization guided exploration

How do people learn in real-world environments where the space of possible actions can be vast or even infinite? The study of human learning has made rapid progress in past decades, from discovering the neural substrate of reward prediction errors, to building AI capable of mastering the game of Go. Yet this line of research has primarily focused on learning through repeated interactions with the same stimuli. How are humans able to rapidly adapt to novel situations and learn from such sparse examples? I propose a theory of how generalization guides human learning, by making predictions about which unobserved options are most promising to explore. Inspired by Roger Shepard’s law of generalization, I show how a Bayesian function learning model provides a mechanism for generalizing limited experiences to a wide set of novel possibilities, based on the simple principle that similar actions produce similar outcomes. This model of generalization generates predictions about the expected reward and underlying uncertainty of unexplored options, where both are vital components in how people actively explore the world. This model allows us to explain developmental differences in the explorative behavior of children, and suggests a general principle of learning across spatial, conceptual, and structured domains.

Abstraction and Analogy in Natural and Artificial Intelligence

In 1955, John McCarthy and colleagues proposed an AI summer research project with the following aim: “An attempt will be made to find how to make machines use language, form abstractions and concepts, solve kinds of problems now reserved for humans, and improve themselves.” More than six decades later, all of these research topics remain open and actively investigated in the AI community. While AI has made dramatic progress over the last decade in areas such as vision, natural language processing, and robotics, current AI systems still almost entirely lack the ability to form humanlike concepts and abstractions. Some cognitive scientists have proposed that analogy-making is a central mechanism for conceptual abstraction and understanding in humans. Douglas Hofstadter called analogy-making “the core of cognition”, and Hofstadter and co-author Emmanuel Sander noted, “Without concepts there can be no thought, and without analogies there can be no concepts.” In this talk I will reflect on the role played by analogy-making at all levels of intelligence, and on prospects for developing AI systems with humanlike abilities for abstraction and analogy.

Abstract Semantic Relations in Mind, Brain, and Machines

Abstract semantic relations (e.g., category membership, part-whole, antonymy, cause-effect) are central to human intelligence, underlying the distinctively human ability to reason by analogy. I will describe a computational project (Bayesian Analogy with Relational Transformations) that aims to extract explicit representations of abstract semantic relations from non-relational inputs automatically generated by machine learning. BART’s representations predict patterns of typicality and similarity for semantic relations, as well as similarity of neural signals triggered by semantic relations during analogical reasoning. In this approach, analogy emerges from the ability to learn and compare relations; mapping emerges later from the ability to compare patterns of relations.

Delineating Reward/Avoidance Decision Process in the Impulsive-compulsive Spectrum Disorders through a Probabilistic Reversal Learning Task

Impulsivity and compulsivity are behavioural traits that underlie many aspects of decision-making and form the characteristic symptoms of Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD) and Gambling Disorder (GD). The neural underpinnings of aspects of reward and avoidance learning under the expression of these traits and symptoms are only partially understood. " "The present study combined behavioural modelling and neuroimaging technique to examine brain activity associated with critical phases of reward and loss processing in OCD and GD. " "Forty-two healthy controls (HC), forty OCD and twenty-three GD participants were recruited in our study to complete a two-session reinforcement learning (RL) task featuring a “probability switch (PS)” with imaging scanning. Finally, 39 HC (20F/19M, 34 yrs +/- 9.47), 28 OCD (14F/14M, 32.11 yrs ±9.53) and 16 GD (4F/12M, 35.53yrs ± 12.20) were included with both behavioural and imaging data available. The functional imaging was conducted by using 3.0-T SIEMENS MAGNETOM Skyra syngo MR D13C at Monash Biomedical Imaging. Each volume compromised 34 coronal slices of 3 mm thickness with 2000 ms TR and 30 ms TE. A total of 479 volumes were acquired for each participant in each session in an interleaved-ascending manner. " " The standard Q-learning model was fitted to the observed behavioural data and the Bayesian model was used for the parameter estimation. Imaging analysis was conducted using SPM12 (Welcome Department of Imaging Neuroscience, London, United Kingdom) in the Matlab (R2015b) environment. The pre-processing commenced with the slice timing, realignment, normalization to MNI space according to T1-weighted image and smoothing with a 8 mm Gaussian kernel. " " The frontostriatal brain circuit including the putamen and medial orbitofrontal (mOFC) were significantly more active in response to receiving reward and avoiding punishment compared to receiving an aversive outcome and missing reward at 0.001 with FWE correction at cluster level; While the right insula showed greater activation in response to missing rewards and receiving punishment. Compared to healthy participants, GD patients showed significantly lower activation in the left superior frontal and posterior cingulum at 0.001 for the gain omission. " " The reward prediction error (PE) signal was found positively correlated with the activation at several clusters expanding across cortical and subcortical region including the striatum, cingulate, bilateral insula, thalamus and superior frontal at 0.001 with FWE correction at cluster level. The GD patients showed a trend of decreased reward PE response in the right precentral extending to left posterior cingulate compared to controls at 0.05 with FWE correction. " " The aversive PE signal was negatively correlated with brain activity in regions including bilateral thalamus, hippocampus, insula and striatum at 0.001 with FWE correction. Compared with the control group, GD group showed an increased aversive PE activation in the cluster encompassing right thalamus and right hippocampus, and also the right middle frontal extending to the right anterior cingulum at 0.005 with FWE correction. " " Through the reversal learning task, the study provided a further support of the dissociable brain circuits for distinct phases of reward and avoidance learning. Also, the OCD and GD is characterised by aberrant patterns of reward and avoidance processing.

Spanning the arc between optimality theories and data

Ideas about optimization are at the core of how we approach biological complexity. Quantitative predictions about biological systems have been successfully derived from first principles in the context of efficient coding, metabolic and transport networks, evolution, reinforcement learning, and decision making, by postulating that a system has evolved to optimize some utility function under biophysical constraints. Yet as normative theories become increasingly high-dimensional and optimal solutions stop being unique, it gets progressively hard to judge whether theoretical predictions are consistent with, or "close to", data. I will illustrate these issues using efficient coding applied to simple neuronal models as well as to a complex and realistic biochemical reaction network. As a solution, we developed a statistical framework which smoothly interpolates between ab initio optimality predictions and Bayesian parameter inference from data, while also permitting statistically rigorous tests of optimality hypotheses.

Rational thoughts in neural codes

First, we describe a new method for inferring the mental model of an animal performing a natural task. We use probabilistic methods to compute the most likely mental model based on an animal’s sensory observations and actions. This also reveals dynamic beliefs that would be optimal according to the animal’s internal model, and thus provides a practical notion of “rational thoughts.” Second, we construct a neural coding framework by which these rational thoughts, their computational dynamics, and actions can be identified within the manifold of neural activity. We illustrate the value of this approach by training an artificial neural network to perform a generalization of a widely used foraging task. We analyze the network’s behaviour to find rational thoughts, and successfully recover the neural properties that implemented those thoughts, providing a way of interpreting the complex neural dynamics of the artificial brain. Joint work with Zhengwei Wu, Minhae Kwon, Saurabh Daptardar, and Paul Schrater.

Inferring Brain Rhythm Circuitry and Burstiness

Bursts in gamma and other frequency ranges are thought to contribute to the efficiency of working memory or communication tasks. Abnormalities in bursts have also been associated with motor and psychiatric disorders. The determinants of burst generation are not known, specifically how single cell and connectivity parameters influence burst statistics and the corresponding brain states. We first present a generic mathematical model for burst generation in an excitatory-inhibitory (EI) network with self-couplings. The resulting equations for the stochastic phase and envelope of the rhythm’s fluctuations are shown to depend on only two meta-parameters that combine all the network parameters. They allow us to identify different regimes of amplitude excursions, and to highlight the supportive role that network finite-size effects and noisy inputs to the EI network can have. We discuss how burst attributes, such as their durations and peak frequency content, depend on the network parameters. In practice, the problem above follows the a priori challenge of fitting such E-I spiking networks to single neuron or population data. Thus, the second part of the talk will discuss a novel method to fit mesoscale dynamics using single neuron data along with a low-dimensional, and hence statistically tractable, single neuron model. The mesoscopic representation is obtained by approximating a population of neurons as multiple homogeneous ‘pools’ of neurons, and modelling the dynamics of the aggregate population activity within each pool. We derive the likelihood of both single-neuron and connectivity parameters given this activity, which can then be used to either optimize parameters by gradient ascent on the log-likelihood, or to perform Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We illustrate this approach using an E-I network of generalized integrate-and-fire neurons for which mesoscopic dynamics have been previously derived. We show that both single-neuron and connectivity parameters can be adequately recovered from simulated data.

Bayesian inference and arousal modulation in spatial perception to mitigate stochasticity and volatility

Bernstein Conference 2024

Evaluating Memory Behavior in Continual Learning using the Posterior in a Binary Bayesian Network

Bernstein Conference 2024

Bayesian active learning for closed-loop synaptic characterization

COSYNE 2022

Bayesian synaptic plasticity is energy efficient

COSYNE 2022

Bayesian Inference in High-Dimensional Time-Series with the Orthogonal Stochastic Linear Mixing Model

COSYNE 2022

Bayesian active learning for latent variable models of decision-making

COSYNE 2022

A distributional Bayesian learning theory for visual perceptual learning

COSYNE 2022

Neural network size balances representational drift and flexibility during Bayesian sampling

COSYNE 2022

Neural network size balances representational drift and flexibility during Bayesian sampling

COSYNE 2022

Online neural modeling and Bayesian optimization for closed-loop adaptive experiments

COSYNE 2022

Online neural modeling and Bayesian optimization for closed-loop adaptive experiments

COSYNE 2022

The secret Bayesian lives of ring attractor networks

COSYNE 2022

The secret Bayesian lives of ring attractor networks

COSYNE 2022

Tracking human skill learning with a hierarchical Bayesian sequence model

COSYNE 2022

Tracking human skill learning with a hierarchical Bayesian sequence model

COSYNE 2022

A Bayesian hierarchical latent variable model for spike train data analysis

COSYNE 2023

A Method for Testing Bayesian Models Using Neural Data

COSYNE 2023

Variable syllable context depth in Bengalese finch songs: A Bayesian sequence model

COSYNE 2023

Bayesian causal inference predicts center-surround interactions in MT

COSYNE 2025

Bayesian integration of audiovisual speech by DNN models is similar to human observers

COSYNE 2025

Metamers and Mixtures: Testing Bayesian models using neural data

COSYNE 2025

Safe Bayesian Optimization for High-Dimensional Neural Control of Movement

COSYNE 2025

Bayesian causal inference predicts center-surround interactions in the middle temporal visual area (MT)

FENS Forum 2024

Bayesian inference of cortico-cortical effective connectivity in networks of neural mass models

FENS Forum 2024

Bayesian inference during implicit perceptual belief updating in dynamic auditory perception

FENS Forum 2024

Bayesian inference on virtual brain models of disorders

FENS Forum 2024

Bayesian perceptual adaptation in auditory motion perception: A multimodal approach with EEG and pupillometry

FENS Forum 2024

EEG correlates of Bayesian inference in auditory spatial localization in changing environments

FENS Forum 2024

Efficacy and safety of anti-amyloid antibodies in Alzheimer’s disease: A comparison of conventional, Bayesian, and frequentist network meta-analyses

FENS Forum 2024

A hierarchical Bayesian mixture approach for modelling neuronal connectivity patterns from MAPseq data

FENS Forum 2024

EEG patterns reflecting Bayesian inference during auditory temporal discrimination

FENS Forum 2024

Putting the Bayesian confidence hypothesis to rest

Neuromatch 5