Recent chronic imaging experiments in mice have revealed that the hippocampal code exhibits non-trivial turnover dynamics over long time scales. Specifically, the subset of cells which are active on any given session in a familiar environment changes over the course of days and weeks. While some cells transition into or out of the code after a few sessions, others are stable over the entire experiment. The mechanisms underlying this turnover are unknown. Here we show that the statistics of turnover are consistent with a model in which non-spatial inputs to CA1 pyramidal cells readily undergo plasticity, while spatially tuned inputs are largely stable over time. The heterogeneity in stability across the cell assembly, as well as the decrease in correlation of the population vector of activity over time, are both quantitatively fit by a simple model with Gaussian input statistics. In fact, such input statistics emerge naturally in a network of spiking neurons operating in the fluctuation-driven regime. This correspondence allows one to map the parameters of a large-scale spiking network model of CA1 onto the simple statistical model, and thereby fit the experimental data quantitatively. Importantly, we show that the observed drift is entirely consistent with random, ongoing synaptic turnover. This synaptic turnover is, in turn, consistent with Hebbian plasticity related to continuous learning in a fast memory system.