Topic: expected value

Beliefs influence the intensity of felt pain. We previously applied regression models to two independent pain-cueing datasets (https://osf.io/5r6z7/) and found that pain intensity reports were a function of the error between participants’ belief, as determined by cues that informed participants about the level of forthcoming noxious stimulation, and the actual stimulation intensity, such that greater error decreased the influence of prior belief. Although this result appeared to present a challenge to established models of perception, our analysis did not formally compare the result against es

When making decision under risk, people often exhibit behaviours that classical economic theories cannot explain. Newer models that attempt to account for these ‘irrational’ behaviours often lack neuroscience bases and require the introduction of subjective and problem-specific constructs. Here, we present a decision-making model inspired by the prediction error signals and introspective neuronal replay reported in the brain. In the model, decisions are chosen based on ‘anticipated surprise’, defined by a nonlinear average of the differences between individual outcomes and a reference point. T