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Mutation induced infection waves in diseases like COVID-19
After more than 4 million deaths worldwide, the ongoing vaccination to conquer the COVID-19 disease is now competing with the emergence of increasingly contagious mutations, repeatedly supplanting earlier strains. Following the near-absence of historical examples of the long-time evolution of infectious diseases under similar circumstances, models are crucial to exemplify possible scenarios. Accordingly, in the present work we systematically generalize the popular susceptible-infected-recovered model to account for mutations leading to repeatedly occurring new strains, which we coarse grain based on tools from statistical mechanics to derive a model predicting the most likely outcomes. The model predicts that mutations can induce a super exponential growth of infection numbers at early times, which self-amplify to giant infection waves which are caused by a positive feedback loop between infection numbers and mutations and lead to a simultaneous infection of the majority of the population. At later stages -- if vaccination progresses too slowly -- mutations can interrupt an ongoing decrease of infection numbers and can cause infection revivals which occur as single waves or even as whole wave trains featuring alternative periods of decreasing and increasing infection numbers. Our results might be useful for discussions regarding the importance of a release of vaccine-patents to reduce the risk of mutation-induced infection revivals but also to coordinate the release of measures following a downwards trend of infection numbers.
Growing in flows: from evolutionary dynamics to microbial jets
Biological systems can self-organize in complex structures, able to evolve and adapt to widely varying environmental conditions. Despite the importance of fluid flow for transporting and organizing populations, few laboratory systems exist to systematically investigate the impact of advection on their spatial evolutionary dynamics. In this talk, I will discuss how we can address this problem by studying the morphology and genetic spatial structure of microbial colonies growing on the surface of a viscous substrate. When grown on a liquid, I will show that S. cerevisiae (baker’s yeast) can behave like “active matter” and collectively generate a fluid flow many times larger than the unperturbed colony expansion speed, which in turn produces mechanical stresses and fragmentation of the initial colony. Combining laboratory experiments with numerical modeling, I will demonstrate that the coupling between metabolic activity and hydrodynamic flows can produce positive feedbacks and drive preferential growth phenomena leading to the formation of microbial jets. Our work provides rich opportunities to explore the interplay between hydrodynamics, growth and competition within a versatile system.
Positive and negative feedback in seizure initiation
Seizure onset is a critically important brain state transition that has proved very difficult to predict accurately from recordings of brain activity. I will present new data acquired using a range of optogenetic and imaging tools to characterize exactly how cortical networks change in the build-up to a seizure. I will show how intermittent optogenetic stimulation ("active probing") reveals a latent change in dendritic excitability that is tightly correlated to the onset of seizure activity. This data relates back to old work from the 1980s suggesting a critical role in epileptic pathophysiology for dendritic plateau potentials. Our data show how the precipitous nature of the transition can be understood in terms of multiple, synergistic positive feedback mechanisms.
The ecology of collective behaviour
Collective behaviour operates without central control, through interactions among individuals. The collective behaviour of ant colonies is based on simple olfactory interactions. Ant species differ enormously in the algorithms that regulate collective behaviour, reflecting diversity in ecology. I will contrast two species in very different ecological situations. Harvester ant colonies in the desert, where water is scarce but conditions are stable, regulate foraging to conserve water. Response to positive feedback from olfactory interactions depends on the risk of water loss, mediated by dopamine neurophysiology. For arboreal turtle ants in the tropical forest, life is easy but unpredictable, and a highly modular system uses negative feedback to sustain activity. In all natural systems, from ant colonies to brains, collective behaviour evolves in relation with changing conditions. Similar dynamics in environmental conditions may lead to the evolution of similar processes to regulate collective behaviour.