Seminar · Epidemiology
Mutation induced infection waves in diseases like COVID-19
Fabian Jan Schwarzendahl · Heinrich Heine University, Dusseldorf
Mon, Oct 11, 2021 · 00:00 UTC
After more than 4 million deaths worldwide, the ongoing vaccination to conquer the COVID-19 disease is now competing with the emergence of increasingly contagious mutations, repeatedly supplanting earlier strains. Following the near-absence of historical examples of the long-time evolution of infectious diseases under similar circumstances, models are crucial to exemplify possible scenarios. Accordingly, in the present work we systematically generalize the popular susceptible-infected-recovered model to account for mutations leading to repeatedly occurring new strains, which we coarse grain ba