Biostatistics seminars

Ocean-wide movement and mixing between tuna stocks make population monitoring difficult and increase uncertainty in sustainable-harvest estimates. Matthew Lauretta presents genetic close-kin mark-recapture methods evaluated using western Atlantic bluefin tuna collected during fisheries monitoring and research surveys. Larvae sampled on western spawning grounds provide genetic links to mature fish at spawning time. Adults later migrate to Northwest Atlantic feeding grounds, where they mix with other stocks. Comparing larval genotypes with adults caught by fisheries identifies parent–offspring relationships, allowing estimation of capture probabilities and the total abundance and biomass of the spawning population with relatively high precision. Online via Vimeo with advance attendee registration, including an option for attendees outside NOAA. Live captions are available and a recording is planned.

How do elementary biological events give rise to ecological community patterns, epidemic behaviour and collective population dynamics? This seminar develops a mechanistic view using Markov jump processes for birth, death, competition, dispersal, infection and recovery. These models connect individual events to biodiversity gradients, species abundance distributions and disease persistence. It examines the roles of demographic stochasticity, environmental variation, spatial heterogeneity and species interactions, highlighting mathematical similarities and differences across ecological and epidemiological systems. The inverse problem is also considered: inferring underlying mechanisms and interaction structures from macroscopic fluctuations and time-series data. Together, stochastic modelling and statistical inference provide a framework for studying ecological complexity and community stability.

Beth Gardner introduces spatial capture-recapture models for estimating wildlife population dynamics and movement. The seminar considers observations from camera traps and genetic identification using hair or scat, showing how the modeling framework can accommodate different sampling methods, time scales and movement processes. Gardner develops the Bayesian formulation through worked examples in R with NIMBLE, then discusses extensions and audience questions. The methods support estimates of demographic rates, spatial distributions and habitat relationships for conservation and management. The organizer explicitly schedules this occurrence at 15:00 Eastern time, rather than the series’ usual time.

In this talk, I will discuss the OpenNeuro Fitlins GLM package and provide an illustration of the analytic workflow. OpenNeuro FitLins GLM is a semi-automated pipeline that reduces barriers to analyzing task-based fMRI data from OpenNeuro's 600+ task datasets. Created for psychology, psychiatry and cognitive neuroscience researchers without extensive computational expertise, this tool automates what is largely a manual process and compilation of in-house scripts for data retrieval, validation, quality control, statistical modeling and reporting that, in some cases, may require weeks of effort. The workflow abides by open-science practices, enhancing reproducibility and incorporates community feedback for model improvement. The pipeline integrates BIDS-compliant datasets and fMRIPrep preprocessed derivatives, and dynamically creates BIDS Statistical Model specifications (with Fitlins) to perform common mass univariate [GLM] analyses. To enhance and standardize reporting, it generates comprehensive reports which includes design matrices, statistical maps and COBIDAS-aligned reporting that is fully reproducible from the model specifications and derivatives. OpenNeuro Fitlins GLM has been tested on over 30 datasets spanning 50+ unique fMRI tasks (e.g., working memory, social processing, emotion regulation, decision-making, motor paradigms), reducing analysis times from weeks to hours when using high-performance computers, thereby enabling researchers to conduct robust single-study, meta- and mega-analyses of task fMRI data with significantly improved accessibility, standardized reporting and reproducibility.

This lecture examines traits and diseases influenced by many genetic variants. It introduces genome-wide association studies, pleiotropy and polygenic risk scores, then considers their use in precision medicine. Outstanding limitations include unexplained heritability and the uneven representation of human populations in genomic research.

Electroencephalography (EEG) has been thoroughly studied for decades in psychiatry research. Yet its integration into clinical practice as a diagnostic/prognostic tool remains unachieved. We hypothesize that a key reason is the underlying patient's heterogeneity, overlooked in psychiatric EEG research relying on a case-control approach. We combine HD-EEG with normative modeling to quantify this heterogeneity using two well-established and extensively investigated EEG characteristics -spectral power and functional connectivity- across a cohort of 1674 patients with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, autism spectrum disorder, learning disorder, or anxiety, and 560 matched controls. Normative models showed that deviations from population norms among patients were highly heterogeneous and frequency-dependent. Deviation spatial overlap across patients did not exceed 40% and 24% for spectral and connectivity, respectively. Considering individual deviations in patients has significantly enhanced comparative analysis, and the identification of patient-specific markers has demonstrated a correlation with clinical assessments, representing a crucial step towards attaining precision psychiatry through EEG.

With the advent of several different fMRI analysis tools and packages outside of the established ones (i.e., SPM, AFNI, and FSL), today's researcher may wonder what the best practices are for fMRI analysis. This talk will discuss some of the recent trends in neuroimaging, including design optimization and power analysis, standardized analysis pipelines such as fMRIPrep, and an overview of current recommendations for how to present neuroimaging results. Along the way we will discuss the balance between Type I and Type II errors with different correction mechanisms (e.g., Threshold-Free Cluster Enhancement and Equitable Thresholding and Clustering), as well as considerations for working with large open-access databases.

We will discuss a recent paper by Taylor et al. (2023): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1053811923002896. They discuss the merits of highlighting results instead of hiding them; that is, clearly marking which voxels and clusters pass a given significance threshold, but still highlighting sub-threshold results, with opacity proportional to the strength of the effect. They use this to illustrate how there in fact may be more agreement between researchers than previously thought, using the NARPS dataset as an example. By adopting a continuous, "highlighted" approach, it becomes clear that the majority of effects are in the same location and that the effect size is in the same direction, compared to an approach that only permits rejecting or not rejecting the null hypothesis. We will also talk about the implications of this approach for creating figures, detecting artifacts, and aiding reproducibility.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb examines three technical problems in applied probability. First, he considers how errors in probabilities derived from fat-tailed survival functions can translate into disproportionately large, potentially unbounded errors in thresholds. He relates this to uncertainty in disease growth rates and forecasting. Second, he discusses what he regards as fundamental probability errors in psychology papers. Third, he examines how correlation and relative distances can mislead in the geometry of information, proposing heuristics for applying entropy-based methods to genetic distances. The lecture connects these examples through the consequences of using probabilistic quantities outside the conditions under which they are informative.

Ophthalmology is ideally placed to benefit from recent advances in artificial intelligence. It is a highly image-based specialty and provides unique access to the microvascular circulation and the central nervous system. This talk will demonstrate diverse applications of machine learning and deep learning techniques in ophthalmology, including in age-related macular degeneration (AMD), the leading cause of blindness in industrialized countries, and cataract, the leading cause of blindness worldwide. This will include deep learning approaches to automated diagnosis, quantitative severity classification, and prognostic prediction of disease progression, both from images alone and accompanied by demographic and genetic information. The approaches discussed will include deep feature extraction, label transfer, and multi-modal, multi-task training. Cluster analysis, an unsupervised machine learning approach to data classification, will be demonstrated by its application to geographic atrophy in AMD, including exploration of genotype-phenotype relationships. Finally, mediation analysis will be discussed, with the aim of dissecting complex relationships between AMD disease features, genotype, and progression.

The cell assembly hypothesis postulates that groups of coordinated neurons form the basis of information processing. Here, we test this hypothesis by analyzing massively parallel spiking activity recorded in monkey motor cortex during a reach-to-grasp experiment for the presence of significant ms-precise spatio-temporal spike patterns (STPs). For this purpose, the parallel spike trains were analyzed for STPs by the SPADE method (Stella et al, 2019, Biosystems), which detects, counts and evaluates spike patterns for their significance by the use of surrogates (Stella et al, 2022 eNeuro). As a result we find STPs in 19/20 data sets (each of 15min) from two monkeys, but only a small fraction of the recorded neurons are involved in STPs. To consider the different behavioral states during the task, we analyzed the data in a quasi time-resolved analysis by dividing the data into behaviorally relevant time epochs. The STPs that occur in the various epochs are specific to behavioral context - in terms of neurons involved and temporal lags between the spikes of the STP. Furthermore we find, that the STPs often share individual neurons across epochs. Since we interprete the occurrence of a particular STP as the signature of a particular active cell assembly, our interpretation is that the neurons multiplex their cell assembly membership. In a related study, we model these findings by networks with embedded synfire chains (Kleinjohann et al, 2022, bioRxiv 2022.08.02.502431).

Schizophrenia is a neuropsychiatric disorder characterized by positive symptoms (such as hallucinations and delusions), negative symptoms (such as avolition and withdrawal) and cognitive dysfunction1. Schizophrenia is highly heritable, and genetic studies are playing a pivotal role in identifying potential biomarkers and causal disease mechanisms with the hope of informing new treatments. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identified nearly 270 loci with a high statistical association with schizophrenia risk; however each locus confers only a small increase in risk therefore it is difficult to translate these findings into understanding disease biology that can lead to treatments. Induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) models are a tractable system to translate genetic findings and interrogate mechanisms of pathogenesis. Mounting research with patient-derived iPSCs has proposed several neurodevelopmental pathways altered in SCZ, such as neural progenitor cell (NPC) proliferation, imbalanced differentiation of excitatory and inhibitory cortical neurons. However, it is unclear what exactly these iPS models recapitulate, how potential perturbations of early brain development translates into illness in adults and how iPS models that represent fetal stages can be utilized to further drug development efforts to treat adult illness. I will present the largest transcriptome analysis of post-mortem caudate nucleus in schizophrenia where we discovered that decreased presynaptic DRD2 autoregulation is the causal dopamine risk factor for schizophrenia (Benjamin et al, Nature Neuroscience 2022 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41593-022-01182-7). We developed stem cell models from a subset of the postmortem cohort to better understand the molecular underpinnings of human psychiatric disorders (Sawada et al, Stem Cell Research 2020). We established a method for the differentiation of iPS cells into ventral forebrain organoids and performed single cell RNAseq and cellular phenotyping. To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate iPSC models of SZ from the same individuals with postmortem tissue. Our study establishes that striatal neurons in the patients with SCZ carry abnormalities that originated during early brain development. Differentiation of inhibitory neurons is accelerated whereas excitatory neuronal development is delayed, implicating an excitation and inhibition (E-I) imbalance during early brain development in SCZ. We found a significant overlap of genes upregulated in the inhibitory neurons in SCZ organoids with upregulated genes in postmortem caudate tissues from patients with SCZ compared with control individuals, including the donors of our iPS cell cohort. Altogether, we demonstrate that ventral forebrain organoids derived from postmortem tissue of individuals with schizophrenia recapitulate perturbed striatal gene expression dynamics of the donors’ brains (Sawada et al, biorxiv 2022 https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.05.26.493589).

Observational data have become a popular source of evidence for causal effects when no randomized controlled trial exists, or to supplement information provided by those. In practice, a wide range of designs and analytical choices exist, and one recent approach relies on the target trial emulation framework. This framework is particularly well suited to mimic what could be obtained in a specific randomized controlled trial, while avoiding time-related selection biases. In this abstract, we present how this framework could be useful to emulate trials in malignant melanoma, and the challenges faced when planning such a study using longitudinal observational data from a cohort study. More specifically, two questions are envisaged: duration of immune checkpoint inhibitors, and trials comparing treatment strategies for BRAF V600-mutant patients (targeted therapy as 1st line, followed by immunotherapy as 2nd line, vs. immunotherapy as 2nd line followed by targeted therapy as 1st line). Using data from 1027 participants to the MELBASE cohort, we detail the results for the emulation of a trial where immune checkpoint inhibitor would be stopped at 6 months vs. continued, in patients in response or with stable disease.

The ability to record large neural populations—hundreds to thousands of cells simultaneously—is a defining feature of modern systems neuroscience. Aside from improved experimental efficiency, what do these technologies fundamentally buy us? I'll argue that they provide an exciting opportunity to move beyond studying the "average" neural response. That is, by providing dense neural circuit measurements in individual subjects and moments in time, these recordings enable us to track changes across repeated behavioral trials and across experimental subjects. These two forms of variability are still poorly understood, despite their obvious importance to understanding the fidelity and flexibility of neural computations. Scientific progress on these points has been impeded by the fact that individual neurons are very noisy and unreliable. My group is investigating a number of customized statistical models to overcome this challenge. I will mention several of these models but focus particularly on a new framework for quantifying across-subject similarity in stochastic trial-by-trial neural responses. By applying this method to noisy representations in deep artificial networks and in mouse visual cortex, we reveal that the geometry of neural noise correlations is a meaningful feature of variation, which is neglected by current methods (e.g. representational similarity analysis).

Fate decisions in developing tissues involve cells transitioning between a set of discrete cell states. Geometric models, often referred to as Waddington landscapes, are an appealing way to describe differentiation dynamics and developmental decisions. We consider the differentiation of neural and mesodermal cells from pluripotent mouse embryonic stem cells exposed to different combinations and durations of signalling factors. We developed a principled statistical approach using flow cytometry data to quantify differentiating cell states. Then, using a framework based on Catastrophe Theory and approximate Bayesian computation, we constructed the corresponding dynamical landscape. The result was a quantitative model that accurately predicted the proportions of neural and mesodermal cells differentiating in response to specific signalling regimes. Taken together, the approach we describe is broadly applicable for the quantitative analysis of differentiation dynamics and for determining the logic of developmental cell fate decisions.

The US has an aging population. For the first time in US history, the number of older adults is projected to outnumber that of children by 2034. This combined with the fact that the prevalence of Alzheimer's Disease increases exponentially with age makes for a worrying combination. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is an intermediate stage of cognitive decline between being cognitively normal and having full-blown Dementia, with every third person with MCI progressing to dementia of the Alzheimer's Type (DAT). While there is no known way to reverse symptoms once they begin, early prediction of disease can help stall its progression and help with early financial planning. While grey matter volume loss in the Hippocampus and Entorhinal Cortex (EC) are characteristic biomarkers of DAT, little is known about the rates of decrease of these volumes within individuals in MCI state across time. We used longitudinal growth curve models to map individual trajectories of volume loss in subjects with MCI. We then looked at whether these rates of volume decrease could predict progression to DAT right in the MCI stage. Finally, we evaluated whether these rates of Hippocampal and EC volume loss were correlated with individual rates of decline of episodic memory, visuospatial ability, and executive function.

The last twenty years have witnessed extraordinarily rapid progress in basic neuroscience, including breakthrough technologies such as optogenetics, and the collection of unprecedented amounts of neuroimaging, genetic and other data relevant to neuroscience and mental health. However, the translation of this progress into improved understanding of brain function and dysfunction has been comparatively slow. As a result, the development of therapeutics for mental health has stagnated too. One central challenge has been to extract meaning from these large, complex, multivariate datasets, which requires a shift towards systems-level mathematical and computational approaches. A second challenge has been reconciling different scales of investigation, from genes and molecules to cells, circuits, tissue, whole-brain, and ultimately behaviour. In this talk I will describe several strands of work using mathematical, statistical, and bioinformatic methods to bridge these gaps. Topics will include: using artificial neural networks to link the organization of large-scale brain connectivity to cognitive function; using multivariate statistical methods to link disease-related changes in brain networks to the underlying biological processes; and using network-based approaches to move from genetic insights towards drug discovey. Finally, I will discuss how simple organisms such as C. elegans can serve to inspire, test, and validate new methods and insights in networks neuroscience.

Over the past few decades, neuroimaging has become a ubiquitous tool in basic research and clinical studies of the human brain. However, no reference standards currently exist to quantify individual differences in neuroimaging metrics over time, in contrast to growth charts for anthropometric traits such as height and weight. Here, we built an interactive resource to benchmark brain morphology, www.brainchart.io, derived from any current or future sample of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. With the goal of basing these reference charts on the largest and most inclusive dataset available, we aggregated 123,984 MRI scans from 101,457 participants aged from 115 days post-conception through 100 postnatal years, across more than 100 primary research studies. Cerebrum tissue volumes and other global or regional MRI metrics were quantified by centile scores, relative to non-linear trajectories of brain structural changes, and rates of change, over the lifespan. Brain charts identified previously unreported neurodevelopmental milestones; showed high stability of individual centile scores over longitudinal assessments; and demonstrated robustness to technical and methodological differences between primary studies. Centile scores showed increased heritability compared to non-centiled MRI phenotypes, and provided a standardised measure of atypical brain structure that revealed patterns of neuroanatomical variation across neurological and psychiatric disorders. In sum, brain charts are an essential first step towards robust quantification of individual deviations from normative trajectories in multiple, commonly-used neuroimaging phenotypes. Our collaborative study proves the principle that brain charts are achievable on a global scale over the entire lifespan, and applicable to analysis of diverse developmental and clinical effects on human brain structure.

People with chronic schizophrenia die on average 10-15 years sooner than the general population, mostly due to physical comorbidity. While sociodemographic, chronic lifestyle and iatrogenic factors are important contributors to this comorbidity, a growing body of research is beginning to suggest that early signs of cardiometabolic dysfunction may be present from the onset of psychosis in some young adults, and may even be detectable before the onset of psychosis. Given that primary prevention is the best means to prevent the onset of more chronic and severe cardiometabolic phenotypes such as CVD, there is clear need to be able to identify young adults with psychosis who are most at risk of future adverse cardiometabolic outcomes, such that the most intensive interventions can be directed in an informed way to attenuate the risk or even prevent those adverse outcomes from occurring.In this talk, Ben will first outline some recent advances in our understanding of the association between cardiometabolic and schizophrenia spectrum disorders. He will then introduce the field of cardiometabolic risk prediction, and highlight how existing tools developed for older general population adults are unlikely to be suitable for young people with psychosis. Finally, he will discuss the current state of play and the future of the Psychosis Metabolic Risk Calculator (PsyMetRiC), a novel clinically useful cardiometabolic risk prediction algorithm tailored for young people with psychosis, which has been developed and externally validated using data from three psychosis early intervention services in the UK.