Climatology seminars

Frank Paul presents early findings from the Karakoram Anomaly Cross-ECV project. The research combines satellite Earth observations with climate data to improve glacier mass-balance modelling in a region where measurements are sparse and glaciers are changing rapidly. The talk examines how these complementary records can help monitor Karakoram glacier dynamics.

Atmospheric gravity waves arise from processes including flow over mountains, moist convection and geostrophic imbalance. They connect atmospheric layers, influence tropospheric jet streams and play a major dynamical role in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Yet much of their spectrum is unresolved by typical climate models, and observations provide limited constraints. Aditi Sheshadri presents research combining observations, high-resolution simulations and data-informed methods to understand their effects on climate variability and improve their representation in global models. Attend online via Zoom. The colloquium runs from 11:30 to 13:00 India Standard Time.

Extreme heat affects rural communities, coastal regions and marine environments in different ways. This webinar presents NOAA-supported research that helps decision-makers target resilience measures to local conditions. Case studies address rural Vermont, Charleston and the Northeast Pacific. The speakers examine rural heat risk in relation to exposure and transportation infrastructure; resilience strategies that connect heat with flooding, water management and sea-level rise; and the drivers and subsurface characteristics of marine heatwaves in ecologically and economically important regions. The discussion connects research with practical decisions about location-specific resilience. The event forms part of NOAA’s Climate Program Office Heat Research Webinar Series, supported by NIHHIS and the Climate Variability and Predictability programme. Online via Vimeo with advance attendee registration. Live captions are available and the webinar will be recorded.

Satellite observations and models make it possible to monitor drought as it develops, but many tools describe weather conditions rather than the damage drought causes. They also miss related hazards that occur concurrently or in sequence, including heatwaves, fires, flooding and mudslides. Amir AghaKouchak presents impact-based drought monitoring that connects the hazard to physical and societal consequences such as crop losses, food availability, energy production and employment. The talk examines barriers to implementation, including incomplete impact data, limited local water-use information and weak links between impact assessment and existing monitoring systems. It argues for incorporating human dimensions alongside climate observations. Online via Webex; advance registration is required, with a joining invitation sent after registration approval. Live captions are available.

This project tests whether nearby National Weather Service METAR observations can fill missing pressure and temperature records at California's Sky Oaks Field Station, where measurements support carbon-cycle research. Linear mixed-effects models and inverse-distance interpolation combine archived observations from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet with USGS elevation data. The pressure model is statistically significant but its 1.21-millibar mean absolute error exceeds the one-millibar target. The temperature model finds no significant correlation and has a 2.60°F mean absolute error. An eddy-covariance tower was also restored to collect meteorological and gas-flux data. The work was completed through a NOAA NERTO internship mentored by Ivory Small and demonstrates both the potential and limitations of reconstructing local environmental observations.

The 10 New Insights in Climate Science report synthesizes influential and emerging research into ten findings relevant to decision-makers ahead of international climate negotiations. This launch examines changes in the climate system, the increasing costs and consequences of warming, and the political and economic influences on climate action. Leading scientists will explain the evidence behind the 2026/27 report and its implications for policy and research ahead of COP31. The programme introduces how the synthesis is produced, presents the ten insights, develops three perspectives on translating science into action, and concludes with audience questions.

A currently quiescent stratovolcano, Mount Shasta, California, still poses a significant hazard to nearby communities thanks to impactful non-eruptive debris flows that can occur throughout the year. In this work, we have built a more complete record of debris flow occurrence using monitoring campaigns and research into historical newspaper records; analyze debris flow frequency and triggering in the context of regional weather and climate patterns; and forecast the future of debris flow hazards at Mount Shasta. This topic is timely because of its relevance to the ongoing efforts to create up-to-date, usable, and relevant hazards assessments at United States Volcanoes, as well as a need expressed by local land managers for debris flow data. Ultimately, this work will not only enhance our understanding of debris flow occurrence at Mount Shasta, but will also aid stakeholders in land planning, hazard mitigation, and preparedness.

Lisa Dang explores how observations reveal the three-dimensional atmospheres and climates of close-in exoplanets. Kepler and TESS have established a diverse population that tests theories of planetary formation and evolution. Tidally locked short-period planets offer strong atmospheric signals but their large day–night contrasts make one-dimensional interpretations inadequate. Measurements from JWST and precise ground-based observatories can expose these spatial differences and determine whether an atmosphere is present. The talk reviews discoveries about intensely irradiated planets and explains how the same observational techniques now investigate temperate rocky worlds and their potential habitability.

Masa Kageyama examines climate models as tools for both scientific investigation and societal decisions. Developed through extensive collaboration, these models connect understanding of large-scale climate behaviour to projections of impacts and risks. The seminar considers scientific and technical improvements needed to support effective adaptation.

This lecture examines how temperature change is measured across the last two centuries. It compares instruments on the ground, satellite observations and indirect evidence for earlier periods. The discussion addresses the construction of global averages from uneven observations, possible urban influences and changes in temperature extremes.

Hélène Brogniez examines atmospheric water vapour as a major component of the climate system. The seminar explains how its relationship with temperature amplifies warming and connects this feedback to the water cycle. Observations and numerical models are considered as complementary tools for weather prediction and climate projections.

This lecture explains the physics and historical development of the greenhouse effect, including why rising concentrations of heat-trapping gases alter Earth's temperature. It addresses misconceptions about saturation and compares greenhouse forcing with other natural and human influences on the planetary energy balance. Measurements provide a basis for evaluating their relative contributions.

Sophie Godin-Beekmann explains the chemical balance that maintains stratospheric ozone and how industrial chlorine- and bromine-containing compounds disrupted it. The seminar reviews the Montreal Protocol and measures aimed at restoring the ozone layer. It also considers the climate consequences of reducing ozone-depleting substances.

This lecture examines the composition of Earth's atmosphere and how it is reconstructed through time. It distinguishes abundant nitrogen and oxygen from trace gases whose concentrations respond strongly to human emissions. Measurements are used to compare natural changes with human influences relevant to climate.

The three lectures examine how physical theory can make sense of complex systems with fluctuations and many interacting components. Syukuro Manabe describes the construction of climate models that connect atmospheric radiation, heat transport and carbon dioxide to changes in surface temperature. Klaus Hasselmann addresses the relationship between short-term weather variability and long-term climate, including methods for distinguishing human influence from natural variation. Giorgio Parisi examines disordered systems and the coexistence of multiple equilibria, with spin glasses providing a central setting for understanding apparently irregular collective behaviour. The programme preserves both parts of the prize: quantitative climate science and the statistical physics of disorder, rather than treating either as a substitute for the other.