Investigating the potential for volcanic island flank collapse and tsunami generation within the Pacific and Indian Oceans

Volcanic edifice flank collapses are low-frequency, high-magnitude events that can rapidly mobilize tens of km3 of material and transport it large distances (>10 km) from the edifice. In ocean basins, these failures induce secondary hazards through the generation of tsunamis that can impact both neighboring and distal coastlines. These high-risk, far-reaching events have historically generated significant damage and loss of life, such as the 1792 collapse of the Mayuyama dome (Japan) that led to ~15,000 fatalities, and recently the 2018 collapse of Anak Krakatau (Indonesia) that resulted in ~440 deaths. Globally, there are 400–800 oceanic and coastal volcanic edifices with the potential for future collapses and associated tsunamis. Although previous studies have evaluated edifice collapse potential at both single volcanoes and over entire arcs, a global assessment of the edifices that are most capable of producing a tsunami-generating collapse is incomplete, in part because of remote locations and lack of detailed investigations.

Building on previous studies, we develop a multi-component weighting procedure to rank the potential for edifice flank collapse and tsunami generation using three criteria: 1) edifice morphology; 2) satellite-derived estimations on the extent of hydrothermal alteration; and 3) 3D slope-stability analysis of potential collapses. We test this approach on oceanic and coastal volcanic edifices from the Marianas, Aleutians, Indonesia, and Philippines. After describing the results and relative ranking of edifices with the highest potential for collapse, we discuss implications for future tsunami hazard assessment.