Computational Mechanisms of Predictive Processing in Brains and Machines
Predictive processing offers a unifying view of neural computation, proposing that brains continuously anticipate sensory input and update internal models based on prediction errors. In this talk, I will present converging evidence for the computational mechanisms underlying this framework across human neuroscience and deep neural networks. I will begin with recent work showing that large-scale distributed prediction-error encoding in the human brain directly predicts how sensory representations reorganize through predictive learning. I will then turn to PredNet, a popular predictive coding inspired deep network that has been widely used to model real-world biological vision systems. Using dynamic stimuli generated with our Spatiotemporal Style Transfer algorithm, we demonstrate that PredNet relies primarily on low-level spatiotemporal structure and remains insensitive to high-level content, revealing limits in its generalization capacity. Finally, I will discuss new recurrent vision models that integrate top-down feedback connections with intrinsic neural variability, uncovering a dual mechanism for robust sensory coding in which neural variability decorrelates unit responses, while top-down feedback stabilizes network dynamics. Together, these results outline how prediction error signaling and top-down feedback pathways shape adaptive sensory processing in biological and artificial systems.
Uncertainty-aware predictive processing
Minimising cortical prediction errors is thought to be a key computation underlying perception, action, and learning. Yet, how the cortex represents and uses uncertainty in this process remains unclear. In the first part of this talk, I will present a normative framework showing how uncertainty can modulate prediction error activity to yield uncertainty-modulated prediction errors (UPEs), hypothesised to be represented by layer 2/3 pyramidal neurons. We propose that these UPEs are computed through inhibitory mechanisms involving SST and PV interneurons. A circuit model demonstrates how cortical cell types can locally compute means, variances, and UPEs, leading to adaptive learning rates. In the second part, I will discuss how uncertainty modulation could be controlled by higher-level representations. We formally derived neural dynamics that minimise prediction errors under the assumption that cortical areas must not only predict the activity in other areas and sensory streams but also jointly project their inverse expected uncertainty about their predictions, which we call “confidence”. This yields a confidence-weighted integration of bottom-up and top-down signals, consistent with Bayesian principles, and predicts the existence of second-order errors that compare confidence with performance. We predict that these second-order errors propagate alongside classical prediction errors through the cortical hierarchy, and simulations demonstrate that this mechanism enables nonlinear classification within a single cortical area. Presented in the van Vreeswijk Theoretical Neuroscience Seminar series (formerly WWTNS) on 2025-11-12. Recording duration: 00:29:21.
Decomposing motivation into value and salience
Humans and other animals approach reward and avoid punishment and pay attention to cues predicting these events. Such motivated behavior thus appears to be guided by value, which directs behavior towards or away from positively or negatively valenced outcomes. Moreover, it is facilitated by (top-down) salience, which enhances attention to behaviorally relevant learned cues predicting the occurrence of valenced outcomes. Using human neuroimaging, we recently separated value (ventral striatum, posterior ventromedial prefrontal cortex) from salience (anterior ventromedial cortex, occipital cortex) in the domain of liquid reward and punishment. Moreover, we investigated potential drivers of learned salience: the probability and uncertainty with which valenced and non-valenced outcomes occur. We find that the brain dissociates valenced from non-valenced probability and uncertainty, which indicates that reinforcement matters for the brain, in addition to information provided by probability and uncertainty alone, regardless of valence. Finally, we assessed learning signals (unsigned prediction errors) that may underpin the acquisition of salience. Particularly the insula appears to be central for this function, encoding a subjective salience prediction error, similarly at the time of positively and negatively valenced outcomes. However, it appears to employ domain-specific time constants, leading to stronger salience signals in the aversive than the appetitive domain at the time of cues. These findings explain why previous research associated the insula with both valence-independent salience processing and with preferential encoding of the aversive domain. More generally, the distinction of value and salience appears to provide a useful framework for capturing the neural basis of motivated behavior.
Predictive processing: a circuit approach to psychosis
Predictive processing is a computational framework that aims to explain how the brain processes sensory information by making predictions about the environment and minimizing prediction errors. It can also be used to explain some of the key symptoms of psychotic disorders such as schizophrenia. In my talk, I will provide an overview of our progress in this endeavor.
Understanding the role of prediction in sensory encoding
At any given moment the brain receives more sensory information than it can use to guide adaptive behaviour, creating the need for mechanisms that promote efficient processing of incoming sensory signals. One way in which the brain might reduce its sensory processing load is to encode successive presentations of the same stimulus in a more efficient form, a process known as neural adaptation. Conversely, when a stimulus violates an expected pattern, it should evoke an enhanced neural response. Such a scheme for sensory encoding has been formalised in predictive coding theories, which propose that recent experience establishes expectations in the brain that generate prediction errors when violated. In this webinar, Professor Jason Mattingley will discuss whether the encoding of elementary visual features is modulated when otherwise identical stimuli are expected or unexpected based upon the history of stimulus presentation. In humans, EEG was employed to measure neural activity evoked by gratings of different orientations, and multivariate forward modelling was used to determine how orientation selectivity is affected for expected versus unexpected stimuli. In mice, two-photon calcium imaging was used to quantify orientation tuning of individual neurons in the primary visual cortex to expected and unexpected gratings. Results revealed enhanced orientation tuning to unexpected visual stimuli, both at the level of whole-brain responses and for individual visual cortex neurons. Professor Mattingley will discuss the implications of these findings for predictive coding theories of sensory encoding. Professor Jason Mattingley is a Laureate Fellow and Foundation Chair in Cognitive Neuroscience at The University of Queensland. His research is directed toward understanding the brain processes that support perception, selective attention and decision-making, in health and disease.