Uncertainty-aware predictive processing

Minimising cortical prediction errors is thought to be a key computation underlying perception, action, and learning. Yet, how the cortex represents and uses uncertainty in this process remains unclear. In the first part of this talk, I will present a normative framework showing how uncertainty can modulate prediction error activity to yield uncertainty-modulated prediction errors (UPEs), hypothesised to be represented by layer 2/3 pyramidal neurons. We propose that these UPEs are computed through inhibitory mechanisms involving SST and PV interneurons. A circuit model demonstrates how cortical cell types can locally compute means, variances, and UPEs, leading to adaptive learning rates. In the second part, I will discuss how uncertainty modulation could be controlled by higher-level representations. We formally derived neural dynamics that minimise prediction errors under the assumption that cortical areas must not only predict the activity in other areas and sensory streams but also jointly project their inverse expected uncertainty about their predictions, which we call “confidence”. This yields a confidence-weighted integration of bottom-up and top-down signals, consistent with Bayesian principles, and predicts the existence of second-order errors that compare confidence with performance. We predict that these second-order errors propagate alongside classical prediction errors through the cortical hierarchy, and simulations demonstrate that this mechanism enables nonlinear classification within a single cortical area. Presented in the van Vreeswijk Theoretical Neuroscience Seminar series (formerly WWTNS) on 2025-11-12. Recording duration: 00:29:21.